{"id":44044,"date":"2018-10-11T12:00:00","date_gmt":"2018-10-11T12:00:00","guid":{"rendered":""},"modified":"2020-06-22T23:18:52","modified_gmt":"2020-06-22T23:18:52","slug":"44044","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/zh\/3\/44044\/","title":{"rendered":"\u5706\u684c\u8ba8\u8bba\uff1a\u4e2d\u5916\u4e13\u5bb6\u600e\u4e48\u770bIPCC 1.5\u2103\u62a5\u544a\uff1f"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u572810\u67088\u65e5\u53d1\u5e03\u7684\u62a5\u544a\u4e2d\uff0c\u8054\u5408\u56fd\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u9886\u5bfc\u673a\u6784\u5f3a\u8c03\u4e86\u63a7\u5236\u5168\u7403\u5e73\u5747\u6c14\u6e29\u5347\u5e45\u4e0e\u5de5\u4e1a\u9769\u547d\u524d\u6c34\u5e73\u76f8\u6bd4\u4e0d\u8d85\u8fc71.5\u6444\u6c0f\u5ea6\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u6027\u3002<\/p>\n

\u653f\u5e9c\u95f4\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u4e13\u95e8\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a\uff08IPCC\uff09\u62a5\u544a\u753119\u4f4d\u9876\u7ea7\u6c14\u5019\u79d1\u5b66\u5bb6\u64b0\u5199\uff0c\u7ec6\u81f4\u5730\u68c0\u89c6\u4e86\u5168\u7403\u5347\u6e291.5\u6444\u6c0f\u5ea6\u548c2\u6444\u6c0f\u5ea6\u5e26\u6765\u7684\u4e0d\u540c\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u5e76\u6982\u8ff0\u4e86\u5b9e\u73b01.5\u6444\u6c0f\u5ea6\u6e29\u63a7\u76ee\u6807\u6240\u9700\u91c7\u53d6\u7684\u884c\u52a8\u3002<\/p>\n

\u62a5\u544a\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u8981\u907f\u514d\u5730\u7403\u906d\u53d7\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u5e26\u6765\u7684\u6700\u574f\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u5404\u56fd\u5c31\u5fc5\u987b\u57282030\u5e74\u524d\u5b8c\u5168\u505c\u6b62\u71c3\u70e7\u5316\u77f3\u71c3\u6599\u3002<\/p>\n

\u62a5\u544a\u547c\u5401\uff0c\u5e94\u8be5\u4ece\u80fd\u6e90\u3001\u4ea4\u901a\u548c\u519c\u4e1a\u7cfb\u7edf\u7b49\u793e\u4f1a\u5404\u4e2a\u65b9\u9762\u7740\u624b\uff0c\u5b9e\u73b0“\u5feb\u901f\u3001\u6df1\u8fdc\u548c\u524d\u6240\u672a\u6709\u7684\u6539\u53d8”\u3002\u5b8c\u6210\u8fd9\u4e00\u76ee\u6807\u5168\u7403\u9884\u8ba1\u6bcf\u5e74\u9700\u89812.4\u4e07\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u6295\u8d44\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u6bd4\u8bb8\u591a\u56fd\u5bb6\u5728\u300a\u5df4\u9ece\u534f\u5b9a\u300b\u4e2d\u627f\u8bfa\u7684\u66f4\u4e3a\u79ef\u6781\u7684\u884c\u52a8\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5927\u578b\u53d1\u5c55\u4e2d\u56fd\u5bb6\u62e5\u6709\u4e0d\u65ad\u589e\u957f\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u52a8\u529b\uff0c\u4f46\u6e29\u5ba4\u6c14\u4f53\u6392\u653e\u91cf\u4e5f\u65e5\u6e10\u6500\u5347\u3002\u4e3a\u6b64\uff0c\u4e2d\u5916\u5bf9\u8bdd<\/em>\u9080\u8bf7\u591a\u4f4d\u4e13\u5bb6\uff0c\u5c31\u8be5\u62a5\u544a\u7ed3\u679c\u5bf9\u4e0a\u8ff0\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u8fdb\u884c\u8bc4\u4f30\u3002<\/p>\n

\n\u59dc\u514b\u96bd, \u56fd\u5bb6\u53d1\u5c55\u548c\u6539\u9769\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a\u80fd\u6e90\u7814\u7a76\u6240\u7814\u7a76\u5458\uff0c<\/strong>IPCC 1.5<\/strong>\u2103\u7279\u522b\u62a5\u544a\u4e2d\u56fd\u4f5c\u8005\u4e4b\u4e00<\/strong><\/p>\n

IPCC 1.5\u2103\u7279\u522b\u62a5\u544a\u660e\u786e\u6307\u51fa\u4e86\u4e00\u6761\u6574\u4f53\u8def\u5f84\uff1a\u5373\u5b9e\u73b01.5\u2103\u76ee\u6807\u8981\u6c42\u5168\u4e16\u754c\u57282050\u5e74\u5de6\u53f3\u5b9e\u73b0\u78b3\u4e2d\u548c\uff08\u5373\u96f6\u6392\u653e\uff09\u3002\u8981\u5b9e\u73b0\u8fd9\u4e2a\u76ee\u6807\uff0c\u65f6\u95f4\u975e\u5e38\u77ed\u6682\uff0c\u8f6c\u578b\u901f\u5ea6\u4e5f\u4f1a\u7279\u522b\u5feb\uff0c\u5982\u4f55\u5e94\u5bf9\u5982\u6b64\u5feb\u901f\u7684\u8f6c\u578b\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u975e\u5e38\u5173\u952e\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u3002<\/p>\n

\u6211\u5012\u4e0d\u662f\u7279\u522b\u62c5\u5fc3\u6280\u672f\u53ef\u884c\u6027\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u73b0\u6709\u7684\u6280\u672f\u5df2\u7ecf\u5927\u81f4\u80fd\u5e2e\u6211\u4eec\u5b9e\u73b01.5\u2103\u7684\u60c5\u5883\u3002\u4f46\u662f\u5feb\u901f\u7684\u8f6c\u578b\u548c\u53d8\u5316\u4f1a\u5e26\u6765\u4f17\u591a\u793e\u4f1a\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u6bd4\u5982\u5931\u4e1a\u3001\u4f20\u7edf\u4ea7\u4e1a\u7684\u8f6c\u578b\uff0c\u8fd9\u9700\u8981\u7279\u522b\u8c28\u614e\u5904\u7406\u3002<\/p>\n

\u6b63\u59821.5\u2103\u7279\u522b\u62a5\u544a\u5f3a\u8c03\u7684\uff0c\u5b9e\u73b0\u66f4\u5c0f\u5e45\u5ea6\u7684\u5347\u6e29\u5bf9\u4eba\u7c7b\u793e\u4f1a\u662f\u6709\u5229\u7684\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u8ba4\u4e3a\u5b83\u53ef\u80fd\u5bf9\u4e2d\u56fd\u66f4\u52a0\u6709\u5229\u3002\u6bd4\u5982\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u4f4e\u78b3\u80fd\u6e90\u4f01\u4e1a\u5df2\u7ecf\u5168\u7403\u9886\u5148\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u7684\u51cf\u6392\u3001\u5e94\u5bf9\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u884c\u52a8\u5bf9\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u6280\u672f\u53d1\u5c55\u548c\u51fa\u53e3\u3001\u7ecf\u6d4e\u53d1\u5c55\u5c24\u5176\u6709\u5229\u3002<\/p>\n

\u653e\u773c\u672a\u6765\uff0c\u52302040\u5e74\u65f6\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u9884\u8ba1\u5c06\u4f1a\u8d85\u8fc7\u7f8e\u56fd\u6210\u4e3a\u5168\u7403\u7b2c\u4e00\u5927\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u5168\u4e16\u754c\u5904\u4e8e\u4e00\u4e2a\u548c\u5e73\u3001\u5c11\u707e\u96be\u7684\u5c40\u9762\uff0c\u5bf9\u5c4a\u65f6\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\u4e5f\u662f\u6709\u76ca\u7684\uff0c\u5e94\u5bf9\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u7b26\u5408\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u957f\u8fdc\u5229\u76ca\u3002\u6211\u5e0c\u671b\u4e2d\u56fd\u80fd\u591f\u8bbe\u7acb\u66f4\u5f3a\u6709\u529b\u7684\u51cf\u6392\u76ee\u6807\u3002<\/p>\n

\n\u9648\u8fce, \u4e2d\u56fd\u793e\u79d1\u9662\u57ce\u5e02\u53d1\u5c55\u4e0e\u73af\u5883\u7814\u7a76\u6240\u53ef\u6301\u7eed\u53d1\u5c55\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u7814\u7a76\u5ba4\u7814\u7a76\u5458\uff0c<\/strong>IPCC<\/strong>\u7b2c\u4e94\u3001\u7b2c\u516d\u6b21\u8bc4\u4f30\u62a5\u544a\u7b2c\u4e09\u5de5\u4f5c\u7ec4\u4e3b\u8981\u4f5c\u8005<\/strong><\/p>\n

IPCC 1.5\u2103\u62a5\u544a\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u5ba2\u89c2\u5e73\u8861\u7684\u6587\u672c\uff0c\u8fd9\u7b26\u5408IPCC\u7684\u804c\u8d23\u548c\u5b97\u65e8\uff1a\u5b83\u4e0d\u76f4\u63a5\u7ed9\u51fa\u653f\u7b56\u836f\u65b9\uff0c\u53ea\u662f\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e0e\u653f\u7b56\u76f8\u5173\u7684\u79d1\u5b66\u4fe1\u606f\u3002<\/p>\n

\u76f8\u6bd4\u4e8e2\u2103\u5347\u6e29\uff0c\u5347\u6e291.5\u2103\u7684\u4e0d\u5229\u5f71\u54cd\u80af\u5b9a\u662f\u5c0f\u4e86\uff0c\u8fd9\u5f88\u597d\u7406\u89e3\u3002\u4f46\u5173\u952e\u662f\uff0c\u5b9e\u73b0\u76ee\u6807\u7684\u96be\u5ea6\u5927\u5927\u7684\u589e\u5f3a\u4e86\u3002\u8981\u5b9e\u73b0\u8fd9\u4e00\u76ee\u6807\uff0c\u9664\u7406\u8bba\u4e0a\u53ef\u884c\u4e4b\u5916\uff0c\u6280\u672f\u4e0a\u7684\u53ef\u884c\u6027\uff0c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4e0a\u7684\u53ef\u884c\u6027\uff0c\u793e\u4f1a\u7684\u63a5\u53d7\u7a0b\u5ea6\u90fd\u9700\u8981\u5f97\u5230\u8003\u8651\u3002\u4eba\u7c7b\u793e\u4f1a\u8ddd\u79bb\u771f\u6b63\u80fd\u591f\u5b9e\u73b01.5\u2103\u76ee\u6807\u4f9d\u7136\u5f88\u8fdc\u3002<\/p>\n

1.5\u2103\u62a5\u544a\u6beb\u65e0\u7591\u95ee\u4f1a\u6df1\u5316\u5168\u7403\u5bf9\u4e8e\u8be5\u76ee\u6807\u7684\u8ba4\u8bc6\uff0c\u4f46\u5bf9\u4e8e\u6c14\u5019\u8c08\u5224\u548c\u6c14\u5019\u884c\u52a8\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u4e0d\u4f1a\u662f\u7acb\u7aff\u89c1\u5f71\u7684\u3002\u5bf9\u4e8e\u4e2d\u56fd\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u8bbe\u5b9a\u8fd9\u4e2a1.5\u2103\u76ee\u6807\u7684\u610f\u4e49\u6709\u70b9\u50cf\u300a\u8bba\u8bed\u300b\u6240\u8a00\uff1a“\u53d6\u4e4e\u5176\u4e0a\uff0c\u5f97\u4e4e\u5176\u4e2d\uff1b\u53d6\u4e4e\u5176\u4e2d\uff0c\u5f97\u4e4e\u5176\u4e0b\uff1b\u53d6\u4e4e\u5176\u4e0b\uff0c\u5219\u65e0\u6240\u5f97\u77e3”\uff0c\u867d\u7136\u4e0d\u4e00\u5b9a\u80fd\u5b9e\u73b0\uff0c\u4f46\u6709\u4e86\u5b83\uff0c\u5bf9\u5b9e\u73b0\u66f4\u5bbd\u677e\u76842\u2103\u76ee\u6807\u6709\u597d\u5904\u3002<\/p>\n

\u672c\u6b21\u62a5\u544a\u5728\u9898\u76ee\u4e0a\u5c31\u5f3a\u8c03\u4e86“\u53ef\u6301\u7eed\u53d1\u5c55\u548c\u51cf\u8d2b”\uff0c\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u8bae\u9898\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u9700\u8981\u653e\u5728\u53ef\u6301\u7eed\u53d1\u5c55\u7684\u6846\u67b6\u6765\u8ba8\u8bba\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u4e0d\u80fd\u53ea\u76ef\u7740\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\uff0c\u4e0d\u80fd\u628a\u773c\u754c\u5c40\u9650\u4e8e\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u6765\u8c08\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u4e00\u5b9a\u8981\u5f3a\u8c03\u53ef\u6301\u7eed\u53d1\u5c55\u3001\u516c\u5e73\u3001\u51cf\u8d2b\u3002<\/p>\n

\u62a5\u544a\u91cc\u4e13\u95e8\u63d0\u5230\u4e86\u5728\u653f\u7b56\u4e0d\u5f97\u5f53\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u5e94\u5bf9\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u4e0e\u51cf\u8d2b\u3001\u51cf\u5c11\u9965\u997f\u3001\u80fd\u6e90\u53ef\u5f97\u6027\u7684\u76ee\u6807\u4e4b\u95f4\u662f\u77db\u76fe\u7684\uff0c\u662f\u9700\u8981\u8b66\u60d5\u7684\u3002\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u5206\u6790\u6846\u67b6\u662f\u503c\u5f97\u5f3a\u8c03\u7684\uff0c\u662f\u5168\u9762\u4e14\u7167\u987e\u5230\u5404\u65b9\uff0c\u7279\u522b\u662f\u4e0d\u53d1\u8fbe\u56fd\u5bb6\u5173\u5207\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n

\n\u5085\u838e\uff0c\u751f\u6001\u73af\u5883\u90e8\u56fd\u5bb6\u5e94\u5bf9\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u6218\u7565\u7814\u7a76\u548c\u56fd\u9645\u5408\u4f5c\u4e2d\u5fc3\u52a9\u7406\u7814\u7a76\u5458<\/strong><\/p>\n

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\u9488\u5bf91.5\u2103\u76ee\u6807\uff0c\u8fd9\u4efd\u62a5\u544a\u4e5f\u7ed9\u51fa\u4e86\u63d0\u9192——\u5230\u76ee\u524d\u4e3a\u6b62\u5168\u7403\u5347\u6e29\u5df2\u7ecf\u52301\u5ea6\uff0c\u5373\u4fbf\u73b0\u5728\u505c\u6b62\u6392\u653e\uff0c\u4e5f\u4f1a\u7ee7\u7eed\u5bfc\u81f4\u6e29\u5ea6\u4e0a\u5347\u548c\u6d77\u5e73\u9762\u4e0a\u5347\u3002\u8981\u5b9e\u73b01.5\u2103\u76ee\u6807\uff0c\u9700\u8981\u4e00\u4e2a\u975e\u5e38\u5f7b\u5e95\u7684\u3001\u6d89\u53ca\u5230\u5404\u65b9\u9762\u7684\u8f6c\u578b\u3002\u4f46\u4ece\u73b0\u6709\u7684\u5168\u7403\u5404\u56fd\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\u81ea\u4e3b\u8d21\u732e\uff08NDC\uff09\u6765\u770b\uff0c\u52302030\u5e74\u5b9e\u73b02\u2103\u76ee\u6807\u7684\u5dee\u8ddd\u8fd8\u5f88\u5927\u3002\u7531\u6b64\u53ef\u89c1\uff0c1.5\u2103\u867d\u7136\u8fd8\u6709\u5e0c\u671b\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u4ece\u76ee\u524d\u60c5\u51b5\u6765\u770b\u975e\u5e38\u56f0\u96be\u3002\u6211\u4e2a\u4eba\u8ba4\u4e3a\u73b0\u5728\u5bf9\u4e8e\u5404\u56fd\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u662f\u5148\u5411\u77402\u2103\u76ee\u6807\u52aa\u529b\u3002<\/p>\n

\u8fd9\u4efd\u62a5\u544a\u7684\u5c3a\u5ea6\u662f\u5168\u7403\u8303\u56f4\u7684\uff0c\u4e0d\u592a\u6d89\u53ca\u5230\u5404\u5730\u3001\u5404\u56fd\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u3002\u4ece\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u89d2\u5ea6\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u5e94\u8be5\u628a\u8fd9\u4e2a\u62a5\u544a\u89c6\u4e3a\u4e00\u4e2a\u8b66\u9192\uff0c\u90a3\u5c31\u662f\u66f4\u6e05\u9192\u5730\u6765\u7406\u89e3\u6211\u4eec\u73b0\u5728\u5904\u4e8e\u4ec0\u4e48\u4f4d\u7f6e\u4e0a\u30022020\u5e74\u4e2d\u56fd\u5c06\u4f1a\u66f4\u65b0NDC\uff0c\u4e5f\u9700\u8981\u63d0\u4ea4\u52302050\u5e74\u7684\u957f\u671f\u6218\u7565\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u79d1\u5b66\u7814\u7a76\u4f1a\u4e3a\u4e2d\u56fd\u51cf\u78b3\u76ee\u6807\u7684\u8bbe\u5b9a\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e00\u4e9b\u53c2\u8003\uff0c\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u589e\u5f3a\u6211\u4eec\u5728\u6c14\u5019\u653f\u7b56\u4e0a\u7684\u52a8\u529b\u3002<\/p>\n

\n\u5218\u6ee8, \u6e05\u534e\u5927\u5b66\u6838\u80fd\u4e0e\u65b0\u80fd\u6e90\u6280\u672f\u7814\u7a76\u9662\u6559\u6388, <\/strong>\u539f\u4e2d\u56fd\u653f\u5e9c\u6c14\u5019\u8c08\u5224\u4ee3\u8868\u56e2\u6210\u5458<\/strong><\/p>\n

IPCC\u591a\u6b21\u53d1\u5e03\u62a5\u544a\uff0c\u6700\u5b9e\u9645\u7684\u4f5c\u7528\u662f\u4ece\u79d1\u5b66\u4e0a\u63a8\u52a8\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u8c08\u5224\u7684\u8fdb\u7a0b\uff0c\u8fd9\u6b21\u76841.5\u2103\u62a5\u544a\u4e5f\u4ecd\u7136\u8d77\u5230\u8fd9\u6837\u4e00\u4e2a\u4f5c\u7528\u3002\u5b83\u6709\u52a9\u4e8e\u5168\u7403\u628a\u5e94\u5bf9\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u52aa\u529b\u575a\u6301\u4e0b\u53bb\uff0c\u4fc3\u8fdb\u4e00\u4e2a\u4f4e\u78b3\u7eff\u8272\u793e\u4f1a\u7684\u5f62\u6210\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u90fd\u662f\u79ef\u6781\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4e2d\u56fd\u653f\u5e9c\u63d0\u51fa\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u76ee\u6807\u548c\u627f\u8bfa\uff0c\u662f\u57fa\u4e8e\u4e00\u4e2a\u79d1\u5b66\u7684\u6001\u5ea6\uff0c\u5e76\u7ed3\u5408\u81ea\u8eab\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\u9636\u6bb5\u548c\u6761\u4ef6\uff0c\u7ecf\u8fc7\u4e25\u683c\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u6d4b\u7b97\u800c\u63d0\u51fa\u7684\u3002\u5b83\u4e0d\u4f1a\u4ec5\u4ec5\u56e0\u4e3a\u73b0\u5728\u6709\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u9488\u5bf91.5\u2103\u76ee\u6807\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u548c\u8ba8\u8bba\uff0c\u5c31\u53bb\u6539\u53d8\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u627f\u8bfa\u3002\u53cd\u4e4b\uff0c\u5047\u8bbe\u6c14\u5019\u76ee\u6807\u6709\u6240\u653e\u677e\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u4e5f\u4e0d\u4f1a\u56e0\u6b64\u53bb\u653e\u677e\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u52aa\u529b\u3002\u6211\u60f3\u4e2d\u56fd\u653f\u5e9c\u4f1a\u4ee5\u4e00\u8d2f\u7684\u3001\u575a\u6301\u7684\u6001\u5ea6\u671d\u7740\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u4f4e\u78b3\u53d1\u5c55\u76ee\u6807\u52aa\u529b\u3002<\/p>\n

\n\u8428\u91cc\u6728\u5c14·\u80e1\u514b\uff0c\u5b5f\u52a0\u62c9\u56fd\u72ec\u7acb\u5927\u5b66\u56fd\u9645\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u4e0e\u53d1\u5c55\u4e2d\u5fc3\u4e3b\u4efb<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u653f\u5e9c\u95f4\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u4e13\u95e8\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a\uff08IPCC\uff09\u7684\u79d1\u5b66\u5bb6\u4eec\u660e\u786e\u4e86\u5728\u77ed\u65f6\u95f4\u5185\u5b9e\u73b01.5\u6444\u6c0f\u5ea6\u6e29\u63a7\u76ee\u6807\u3001\u5b9e\u73b0\u5168\u7403\u7ecf\u6d4e\u65e0\u78b3\u5316\u6240\u9700\u7684\u5404\u79cd\u63aa\u65bd\uff0c\u6bd4\u5982\u505c\u6b62\u4f7f\u7528\u5316\u77f3\u71c3\u6599\uff0c100%\u4f7f\u7528\u53ef\u518d\u751f\u80fd\u6e90\u3002\u76ee\u524d\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u3001\u5370\u5ea6\u548c\u5df4\u897f\u8fd9\u4e9b\u53d1\u5c55\u4e2d\u5927\u56fd\u5df2\u7ecf\u5f00\u59cb\u4e86\u65e0\u78b3\u5316\u8f6c\u578b\u3002\u6240\u4ee5\u6211\u76f8\u4fe1\uff0c\u672a\u6765\u8fd9\u4e00\u884c\u52a8\u4e5f\u5c06\u7531\u8fd9\u4e9b\u56fd\u5bb6\u4e3b\u5bfc\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u4ed6\u4eec\u8fd8\u9700\u8981\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u52a0\u5feb\u8f6c\u578b\u6b65\u4f10\u3002\u8fd9\u4e2a\u62a5\u544a\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u8b66\u544a\uff0c\u5e76\u660e\u786e\u5730\u544a\u8beb\u6211\u4eec\uff0c\u5730\u7403\u6b63\u9762\u4e34\u5168\u7403\u6027\u7684\u5371\u673a\uff0c\u6240\u6709\u4eba\u90fd\u5e94\u8be5\u6ce8\u610f\u8fd9\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\u3002<\/p>\n

\n\u4e54\u5b89\u5a1c·\u9ed1\u683c\uff0c\u4f26\u6566\u5e1d\u56fd\u7406\u5de5\u5b66\u9662\u5927\u6c14\u7269\u7406\u5b66\u6559\u6388\u3001\u4f26\u6566\u683c\u5170\u745f\u59c6\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u4e0e\u73af\u5883\u7814\u7a76\u6240\u8054\u5408\u4e3b\u4efb<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\u4e3e\u4e16\u77a9\u76ee\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u5176\u4e8c\u6c27\u5316\u78b3\u6392\u653e\u91cf\u4e5f\u540c\u6837“\u79f0\u9738\u5168\u7403”\u3002\u867d\u7136\u8fd9\u4e0e\u4e2d\u56fd\u5de8\u5927\u7684\u4eba\u53e3\u89c4\u6a21\u6709\u4e00\u5b9a\u5173\u7cfb\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u503c\u5f97\u6ce8\u610f\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u76ee\u524d\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u4eba\u5747\u4e8c\u6c27\u5316\u78b3\u6392\u653e\u91cf\u5df2\u7ecf\u9ad8\u4e8e\u6b27\u76df\u56fd\u5bb6\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4e2d\u56fd\u5728\u53ef\u518d\u751f\u80fd\u6e90\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u89c4\u6a21\u975e\u5e38\u60ca\u4eba\uff0c\u800c\u81ea2012\u5e74\u4ee5\u6765\u4e8c\u6c27\u5316\u78b3\u6392\u653e\u589e\u957f\u52bf\u5934\u4e5f\u65e5\u8d8b\u653e\u7f13\uff0c\u7ed3\u679c\u4ee4\u4eba\u6b23\u6170\u3002\u6240\u4ee5\u6211\u76f8\u4fe1\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u671f\u5f85\u4e2d\u56fd\u5728\u5b9e\u73b0\u653f\u5e9c\u95f4\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u4e13\u95e8\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a\uff08IPCC\uff09\u62a5\u544a\u76ee\u6807\uff0c\u7279\u522b\u662f\u5728\u672c\u4e16\u7eaa\u672b\u524d\u5b9e\u73b0\u96f6\u6392\u653e\u7684\u96c4\u5fc3\u58ee\u5fd7\u65b9\u9762\u53d1\u6325\u4e3b\u5bfc\u4f5c\u7528\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5370\u5ea6\u76ee\u524d\u8fd8\u5904\u5728\u73b0\u4ee3\u5316\u65e9\u671f\u9636\u6bb5\uff0c\u4eba\u5747\u6e29\u5ba4\u6c14\u4f53\u6392\u653e\u91cf\u8f83\u4f4e\uff08\u7ea6\u4e3a\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u56db\u5206\u4e4b\u4e00\uff09\u3002\u4f46\u8be5\u56fd\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u53d1\u5c55\u8fc5\u901f\uff0c\u4eba\u53e3\u89c4\u6a21\u4e5f\u4e0e\u4e2d\u56fd\u76f8\u5f53\uff0c\u672a\u6765\u6e29\u5ba4\u6c14\u4f53\u6392\u653e\u5fc5\u7136\u4f1a\u51fa\u73b0\u589e\u957f\u3002\u4e0d\u8fc7\uff0c\u5370\u5ea6\u5df2\u7ecf\u8ba1\u5212\u653e\u5f03\u65b0\u5efa\u71c3\u7164\u7535\u5382\uff0c\u5e76\u5927\u4e3e\u6295\u8d44\u53ef\u518d\u751f\u80fd\u6e90\uff08\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u592a\u9633\u80fd\uff09\uff0c\u52a0\u4e0a\u8be5\u56fd\u653f\u5e9c\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u51b3\u5fc3\uff0c\u672a\u6765\u5370\u5ea6\u5fc5\u7136\u4f1a\u8fc5\u901f\u5b9e\u73b0\u53bb\u78b3\u5316\u7684\u76ee\u6807\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5df4\u897f\u5219\u5c5e\u4e8e\u53e6\u5916\u4e00\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\u3002\u68ee\u6797\u780d\u4f10\u662f\u9020\u6210\u4e8c\u6c27\u5316\u78b3\u6392\u653e\u91cf\u6fc0\u589e\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u539f\u56e0\u30022005\u5e74\u4ee5\u6765\uff0c\u5df4\u897f\u5728\u89e3\u51b3\u68ee\u6797\u6ee5\u780d\u6ee5\u4f10\u65b9\u9762\u53d6\u5f97\u4e86\u559c\u4eba\u7684\u6210\u7ee9\uff0c\u4f46\u5982\u4eca\u8fd9\u4e00\u52bf\u5934\u6709\u6240\u653e\u7f13\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u51fa\u73b0\u5012\u9000\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\u5f15\u8d77\u4e86\u4eba\u4eec\u7684\u9ad8\u5ea6\u5173\u6ce8\u3002<\/p>\n

\n\u4f0a\u5185\u65af·<\/strong>\u5361\u7c73\u6d1b\u5c3c<\/strong>\uff0c\u963f\u6839\u5ef7<\/strong>\u6d77\u6d0b\u7814\u7a76\u4e0e\u5927\u6c14\u4e2d\u5fc3<\/strong>\u6559\u6388\u3001<\/strong>IPCC<\/strong>\u62a5\u544a<\/strong>\u6709\u5173\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u6696\u76f8\u5173<\/strong>\u5f71\u54cd\u90e8\u5206\u7684\u64b0\u7a3f\u4eba\uff0c<\/strong><\/p>\n

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\u6709\u5173\u51cf\u6392\u7684“\u5171\u540c\u4f46\u6709\u533a\u522b\u7684\u8d23\u4efb”\u7684\u8ba8\u8bba\u5fc5\u987b\u6210\u4e3a\u8fc7\u53bb\u65f6\u3002\u6240\u6709\u56fd\u5bb6\u5e94\u8be5\u8ba8\u8bba\u7684\u662f\u91d1\u878d\u8d22\u653f\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u53d1\u5c55\u4e2d\u56fd\u5bb6\u9700\u8981\u652f\u6301\u3002\u8fd9\u4efd\u62a5\u544a\u6ca1\u6709\u544a\u8bc9\u6bcf\u4e2a\u56fd\u5bb6\u5177\u4f53\u8981\u505a\u4ec0\u4e48\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u6307\u660e\u4e86\u5168\u7403\u6240\u6709\u56fd\u5bb6\u672a\u6765\u8981\u8d70\u7684\u9053\u8def\u3002<\/p>\n

\n\u590f\u4f0a\u62c9<\/strong>·<\/strong>\u62c9\u52a0\u592b\uff0c<\/strong>\u4fdd\u62a4\u56fd\u9645\u6c14<\/strong>\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u4e3b\u7ba1<\/strong><\/p>\n

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\n\u5362\u514b·\u54c8\u7075\u987f\uff0c\u725b\u6d25\u5927\u5b66\u73af\u5883\u53d8\u5316\u7814\u7a76\u6240\u535a\u58eb\u540e\u7814\u7a76\u5458\u3001\u5927\u5b66\u8bb2\u5e08<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u65b0\u5174\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u56fd\u5bb6\u975e\u5e38\u91cd\u8981\u3002\u6211\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u4eba\u4eec\u666e\u904d\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff08\u6b27\u76df\u3001\u6fb3\u5927\u5229\u4e9a\u548c\u7f8e\u56fd\u7b49\uff09\u53d1\u8fbe\u56fd\u5bb6\u5e94\u8be5\u5236\u5b9a\u6bd4\u4f4e\u6536\u5165\u56fd\u5bb6\u66f4\u5177\u9b44\u529b\u7684\u51cf\u6392\u76ee\u6807\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u4f4e\u6536\u5165\u56fd\u5bb6\u4e3a\u4e86\u6ee1\u8db3\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6301\u7eed\u53d1\u5c55\u7684\u9700\u8981\uff0c\u8fd8\u8981\u8003\u8651\u5176\u4ed6\u4e00\u4e9b\u3001\u751a\u81f3\u7ecf\u5e38\u4e92\u76f8\u51b2\u7a81\u7684\u8981\u6c42\u3002<\/p>\n

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