{"id":44375,"date":"2020-03-06T11:29:00","date_gmt":"2020-03-06T11:29:00","guid":{"rendered":""},"modified":"2020-06-22T23:21:12","modified_gmt":"2020-06-22T23:21:12","slug":"44375","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/zh\/3\/44375\/","title":{"rendered":"\u4e91\u5c42\uff1a\u5168\u7403\u53d8\u6696\u6a21\u578b\u4e2d\u7684\u5173\u952e\u53d8\u91cf"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\u957f\u671f\u4ee5\u6765\u8ba9\u6c14\u5019\u79d1\u5b66\u5bb6\u6700\u62c5\u5fe7\u7684\u4e8b\u60c5\u8fd8\u662f\u53d1\u751f\u4e86\u3002\u4e16\u754c\u9876\u5c16\u6c14\u5019\u5efa\u6a21\u56e2\u961f\u6240\u505a\u7684\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u65b0\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u4f7f\u5168\u7403\u6c14\u5019\u7684\u672a\u6765\u770b\u8d77\u6765\u66f4\u4e0d\u4e50\u89c2\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u7814\u7a76\u4eba\u5458\u5728\u5f00\u5c55\u65b0\u7684\u5b9e\u5730\u8c03\u67e5\u540e\u6539\u53d8\u4e86\u6c14\u5019\u6a21\u578b\u5bf9\u4e91\u5c42\u7684\u5904\u7406\u65b9\u5f0f\uff0c\u5e76\u63d0\u51fa\u968f\u7740\u5168\u7403\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u6696\uff0c\u4e91\u5c42\u4e3a\u5730\u7403\u964d\u6e29\u7684\u80fd\u529b\u6216\u5c06\u5927\u5e45\u964d\u4f4e&mdash;&mdash;\u4ece\u800c\u4f1a\u52a0\u901f\u5168\u7403\u53d8\u6696\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4e91\u5c42\u4e00\u76f4\u662f\u6c14\u5019\u8ba1\u7b97\u4e2d\u6700\u5927\u7684\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u56e0\u7d20\u3002\u5b83\u4eec\u65e2\u80fd\u4e3a\u5730\u7403\u906e\u853d\u9633\u5149\uff0c\u4e5f\u80fd\u5f71\u54cd\u6563\u70ed\uff0c\u54ea\u4e2a\u5360\u4e0a\u98ce\uff0c\u5219\u53d6\u51b3\u4e8e\u4e91\u5c42\u7684\u53cd\u5c04\u80fd\u529b\u3001\u9ad8\u5ea6\u3001\u4ee5\u53ca\u662f\u767d\u5929\u8fd8\u662f\u9ed1\u591c\u3002\u7531\u4e8e\u4e91\u5c42\u53d8\u5e7b\u83ab\u6d4b\uff0c\u4e14\u53d8\u5316\u5f80\u5f80\u5728\u975e\u5e38\u5c0f\u7684\u5c3a\u5ea6\u4e0a\u53d1\u751f\uff0c\u5728<a 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href=\"https:\/\/www.imperial.ac.uk\/news\/194738\/thanks-clouds-climate-simulations-predict-more\/\">\u4e0a\u4e2a\u6708\u5c31\u65b0\u6a21\u578b\u53d1\u8868<\/a>\u8bc4\u8bba\u6587\u7ae0\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u4f5c\u8005\u9a6c\u514b&middot;\u6cfd\u6797\u5361\uff08Mark 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href=\"https:\/\/www.carbonbrief.org\/explainer-how-scientists-estimate-climate-sensitivity\">\u6700\u9ad8\u8fbe\u52304.5\u5ea6<\/a>\uff0c\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u4e1a\u5185\u6240\u8bf4\u7684\u5e73\u8861\u6001\u6c14\u5019\u654f\u611f\u6027\u3002<\/p>\n<p>2018\u5e74\u57c3\u514b\u585e\u7279\u5927\u5b66\u6559\u6388\u5f7c\u5f97&middot;\u79d1\u514b\u65af\uff08Peter Cox\uff09\u4e3b\u6301\u7684\u4e00\u9879\u7814\u7a76\u518d\u6b21\u652f\u6301\u4e86\u8be5\u5171\u8bc6\u3002\u8fd9\u9879\u88ab\u5e7f\u4e3a\u5f15\u7528\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u53d1\u73b0\uff0c\u6c14\u5019\u654f\u611f\u6027\u8d85\u8fc74.5\u6444\u6c0f\u5ea6\u7684\u51e0\u7387&ldquo;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/nature25450\">\u4e0d\u52301%<\/a>&rdquo;\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4f46\u4e0a\u8ff0\u5171\u8bc6\u5982\u4eca\u5df2\u7ecf\u88ab\u5b8c\u5168\u63a8\u7ffb\u3002\u6839\u636e\u73b0\u5728\u5927\u591a\u6570\u9886\u5148\u7684\u6c14\u5019\u6a21\u578b\uff08\u5305\u62ec\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u5bb6\u5927\u6c14\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u5fc3\uff08NCAR\uff09\u548c\u82f1\u56fd\u6c14\u8c61\u5c40\u54c8\u5fb7\u5229\u4e2d\u5fc3\uff08Hadley Centre\uff09\u7684\u6a21\u578b\uff09\u8ba1\u7b97\uff0c\u4e8c\u6c27\u5316\u78b3\u6d53\u5ea6\u589e\u52a0\u4e00\u500d\u65f6\u7684\u6c14\u5019\u654f\u611f\u6027\u6bd4\u539f\u5148\u7684\u9884\u8ba1\u9ad8\u4e00\u6444\u6c0f\u5ea6\u6216\u66f4\u9ad8\uff0c\u6700\u9ad8\u53ef\u8fbe5.6\u6444\u6c0f\u5ea6\u3002\u51e0\u4e4e\u53ef\u4ee5\u80af\u5b9a\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u53d1\u73b0\u4f1a\u5728\u660e\u5e744\u6708\u7b7e\u7f72\u7684\u4e0b\u4e00\u4efdIPCC\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u8bc4\u4f30\u62a5\u544a\u4e2d\u5f97\u5230\u5f3a\u6709\u529b\u7684\u4f53\u73b0\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4e0e\u6b64\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u65b0\u7684\u53d1\u73b0\u5e94\u8be5\u4f1a\u8ba9\u51c6\u5907\u5728\u4eca\u5e7411\u6708\u683c\u62c9\u65af\u54e5\u6c14\u5019\u5927\u4f1a\u4e0a\u5c31\u6e29\u5ba4\u6c14\u4f53\u51cf\u6392\u8fbe\u6210\u65b0\u534f\u8bae\u7684\u6c14\u5019\u8c08\u5224\u4ee3\u8868\u4eec\u611f\u5230\u4e0d\u5b89\u3002\u4fee\u6b63\u540e\u7684\u4f30\u503c\u8ba9\u63a7\u5236\u5168\u7403\u53d8\u6696\u4e0d\u8d85\u8fc72\u6444\u6c0f\u5ea6\u53d8\u5f97\u66f4\u52a0\u65e0\u671b\uff0c\u66f4\u4e0d\u7528\u8bf4\u4e94\u5e74\u524d\u300a\u5df4\u9ece\u534f\u5b9a\u300b\u4e2d\u5546\u5b9a\u76841.5\u6444\u6c0f\u5ea6\u7684\u76ee\u6807\u4e86\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5173\u4e8e\u4e91\u5c42\u5728\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u4e2d\u53d1\u6325\u4f55\u79cd\u4f5c\u7528\u7684\u8fa9\u8bba\uff0c\u4e0d\u8fc7\u662f\u4eba\u4eec\u5728\u5168\u7403\u53d8\u6696\u80cc\u666f\u4e0b\u5bf9\u81ea\u7136\u53cd\u9988\u7684\u62c5\u5fe7\u7684\u4e00\u90e8\u5206\u3002\u4e8c\u6c27\u5316\u78b3\u5927\u6c14\u6d53\u5ea6\u4ece\u5de5\u4e1a\u5316\u524d\u6c34\u5e73\u589e\u52a0\u4e00\u500d\u6240\u5e26\u6765\u7684&ldquo;\u6e29\u5ba4\u6548\u5e94&rdquo;\u662f\u4f7f\u5168\u7403\u6c14\u6e29\u5347\u9ad8\u7ea61\u6444\u6c0f\u5ea6\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u70b9\u7684\u7269\u7406\u539f\u7406\u65e0\u53ef\u4e89\u8bae\u3002\u4f46\u8fd9\u53ea\u662f\u5f00\u59cb\uff0c\u4e8b\u60c5\u4f1a\u53d8\u7684\u66f4\u52a0\u590d\u6742&mdash;&mdash;\u4e5f\u66f4\u4ee4\u4eba\u5fe7\u5fc3&mdash;&mdash;\u56e0\u4e3a\u81ea\u7136\u7cfb\u7edf\u5bf9\u6700\u521d\u53d8\u6696\u7684\u53cd\u5e94\u65b9\u5f0f\u653e\u5927\u4e86\u53cd\u9988\uff0c\u4e00\u5207\u90fd\u96be\u4ee5\u51c6\u786e\u4f30\u8ba1\u3002<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/chinadialogue-production.s3.amazonaws.com\/uploads\/content_image\/content_image\/6633\/full-size-indian-ocean-clouds_body.jpg\"><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/chinadialogue-production.s3.amazonaws.com\/uploads\/content_image\/content_image\/6633\/full-size-indian-ocean-clouds_body.jpg\" style=\"width: 100%; height: 100%;\" \/><\/a><br \/>\n<span class=\"caption\">\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u5bb6\u822a\u7a7a\u822a\u5929\u5c40\u7684Terra\u822a\u5929\u5668\u62cd\u6444\u5230\u7684\u5370\u5ea6\u6d0b\u5357\u90e8\u7684\u4e91\u5c42\u3002\u56fe\u7247\u6765\u6e90\uff1a<a href=\"https:\/\/www.nasa.gov\/topics\/earth\/features\/pia15399.html\">NASA<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n<p>\u7b2c\u4e00\u4e2a\u53cd\u9988\u662f\u8986\u76d6\u5730\u7403\u5927\u7247\u533a\u57df\u7684\u51b0\u96ea\u878d\u5316\u3002\u5149\u53cd\u5c04\u9762\u88ab\u8f83\u6697\u7684\u9646\u5730\u548c\u6d77\u6d0b\u53d6\u4ee3\uff0c\u592a\u9633\u80fd\u56e0\u6b64\u88ab\u5438\u6536\u3001\u6563\u5c04\uff0c\u5bfc\u81f4\u7a7a\u6c14\u5347\u6e29\u3002\u4eba\u7c7b\u76ee\u524d\u8fd8\u4e0d\u4e86\u89e3\u6d77\u51b0\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u5317\u51b0\u6d0b\u6d77\u51b0\u7684\u6d88\u5931\u901f\u5ea6\uff0c\u4f46\u6574\u4f53\u8d8b\u52bf\u7740\u5b9e\u4ee4\u4eba\u9707\u60ca\uff0c\u8fc7\u53bb40\u5e74\u95f4\u5317\u6781\u6d77\u51b0\u9762\u79ef\u6bcf\u5341\u5e74\u51cf\u5c11\u7ea610%\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u7b2c\u4e8c\u4e2a\u53cd\u9988\u662f\u968f\u7740\u6c14\u6e29\u5347\u9ad8\uff0c\u9646\u5730\u548c\u6d77\u6d0b\u84b8\u53d1\u91cf\u589e\u52a0\uff0c\u672a\u6765\u5927\u6c14\u4e2d\u7684\u6c34\u84b8\u6c7d\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u589e\u591a\u3002\u6c34\u84b8\u6c7d\u672c\u8eab\u5c31\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u6e29\u5ba4\u6c14\u4f53\u3002\u636e\u6c14\u5019\u6a21\u578b\u4f30\u8ba1\uff0c\u589e\u52a0\u7684\u6c34\u84b8\u6c7d\u5c06\u5bfc\u81f4\u76f4\u63a5\u6e29\u5ba4\u6548\u5e94\u81f3\u5c11\u7ffb\u4e00\u756a\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u7b2c\u4e09\u4e2a\u53cd\u9988\uff0c\u4e5f\u662f\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u6700\u9ad8\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u53cd\u9988\u5c31\u662f\u4e91\u3002\u7a7a\u6c14\u4e2d\u5927\u91cf\u7684\u6c34\u84b8\u6c7d\u5f62\u6210\u6c34\u9897\u7c92\uff0c\u8fdb\u800c\u51dd\u805a\u6210\u4e91\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u4e00\u822c\u8ba4\u4e3a\u4e91\u5c42\u53ef\u4ee5\u4e3a\u5730\u7403\u964d\u6e29\uff0c\u66f4\u591a\u6c34\u84b8\u6c7d\u5f62\u6210\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u4e91\uff0c\u542c\u8d77\u6765\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u4ef6\u597d\u4e8b\uff0c\u4f46\u4e8b\u60c5\u6ca1\u90a3\u4e48\u7b80\u5355\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u767d\u5929\uff0c\u4f4e\u4e91\u5c42\u4f1a\u4e3a\u5730\u7403\u906e\u6321\u9633\u5149\uff0c\u665a\u4e0a\u5219\u5145\u5f53\u4fdd\u6e29\u5c42\u3002\u4e0e\u6b64\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u9ad8\u7a7a\u5377\u4e91\u4e3b\u8981\u5438\u6536\u70ed\u91cf\uff0c\u8fd9\u6837\uff0c\u5b83\u4eec\u4e0b\u65b9\u7684\u7a7a\u6c14\u5c31\u4f1a\u53d8\u6696\u3002\u4e00\u822c\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u5c42\u9762\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u8868\u660e\u4e91\u5c42\u7684\u5347\u6e29\u548c\u964d\u6e29\u6548\u5e94\u4f1a\u76f8\u4e92\u62b5\u6d88\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u5047\u5b9a\u968f\u7740\u5168\u7403\u53d8\u6696\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u62b5\u6d88\u4f1a\u6301\u7eed\u4e0b\u53bb\u3002\u4f46\u65b0\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u5206\u6790\u5374\u663e\u793a\u60c5\u51b5\u5e76\u975e\u5982\u6b64\u3002<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>\u4e91\u5c42\u5c06\u53d8\u8584\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u6839\u672c\u65e0\u6cd5\u6210\u578b\uff0c\u5bfc\u81f4&ldquo;\u66f4\u5f3a\u7684\u4e91\u5c42\u6b63\u53cd\u9988&rdquo;\u4ee5\u53ca\u989d\u5916\u7684\u5347\u6e29\u3002<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>\u53bb\u5e743\u6708\u5728\u5df4\u585e\u7f57\u90a3\u4e3e\u884c\u7684\u4e00\u6b21\u4f1a\u8bae\u4e0a\uff0c\u6c14\u5019\u5efa\u6a21\u5e08\u4eec\u5f00\u59cb\u610f\u8bc6\u5230\u4e16\u754c\u4e0a\u5927\u591a\u6570\u9886\u5148\u7684\u6c14\u5019\u6a21\u578b\u5f97\u51fa\u7684\u7ed3\u8bba\u90fd\u4e0eIPCC\u539f\u5148\u7684\u5171\u8bc6\u6709\u5f88\u5927\u51fa\u5165\u3002\u76f8\u5173\u6570\u636e\u6b63\u9646\u7eed\u516c\u5f00\u3002\u9996\u5148\u662f7\u6708\uff0cNCAR\u7684\u5b89\u5fb7\u9c81&middot;\u76d6\u7279\u66fc\uff08Andrew Gettelman\uff09\u62a5\u544a\u79f0\uff0c\u4e2d\u5fc3\u4fee\u6b63\u540e\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u5f97\u51fa\u7684\u6c14\u5019\u654f\u611f\u6027\uff08\u9884\u8ba1\u4e8c\u6c27\u5316\u78b3\u6c34\u5e73\u589e\u52a0\u4e00\u500d\u540e\u7684\u5347\u6e29\u5e45\u5ea6\uff09\u4e3a5.3\u6444\u6c0f\u5ea6\uff0c\u6bd4\u8be5\u4e2d\u5fc3\u5148\u524d\u4f30\u8ba1\u76844\u5ea6<a href=\"https:\/\/agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/abs\/10.1029\/2019GL083978\">\u9ad8\u51fa\u4e8632%<\/a>\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5176\u4ed6\u7814\u7a76\u4e5f\u5f88\u5feb\u5f97\u51fa\u4e86\u7c7b\u4f3c\u7684\u7ed3\u8bba\u3002\u4e0a\u4e2a\u6708\uff0c\u4ee5\u6cfd\u6797\u5361\u4e3a\u9996\u7684\u82f1\u7f8e\u7814\u7a76\u4eba\u5458\u62a5\u544a\u79f0\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u7814\u7a76\u768427\u4e2a\u6a21\u578b\u4e2d\u670910\u4e2a\u6a21\u578b\u73b0\u5728\u4f30\u8ba1\u4e8c\u6c27\u5316\u78b3\u542b\u91cf\u5347\u9ad8\u4e00\u500d\u5e26\u6765\u7684\u5347\u6e29\u6548\u679c\u53ef\u80fd\u8d85\u8fc74.5\u6444\u6c0f\u5ea6\uff0c\u6709\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u751a\u81f3\u9ad8\u8fbe5.6\u6444\u6c0f\u5ea6\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6a21\u578b\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u5347\u6e29\u4e3a3.9\u6444\u6c0f\u5ea6\uff0c\u6bd4IPCC\u516c\u8ba4\u7684\u5347\u6e29\u6548\u679c\u9ad8\u51fa30%\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6cd5\u56fd\u56fd\u5bb6\u79d1\u5b66\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u5fc3\u7684\u79d1\u5b66\u5bb6\u5f97\u51fa\u7ed3\u8bba\u79f0\uff0c\u6839\u636e\u65b0\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\uff0c\u5316\u77f3\u71c3\u6599\u5e26\u6765\u7684\u5feb\u901f\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\u5c06\u5bfc\u81f4<a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnrs.fr\/en\/two-french-climate-models-consistently-predict-pronounced-global-warming\">\u672c\u4e16\u7eaa\u672b<\/a>\u5168\u7403\u5e73\u5747\u6c14\u6e29\u4e0a\u53476\u81f37\u5ea6\uff0c\u5e76\u8b66\u544a\u79f0\u63a7\u5236\u5347\u6e29\u4e0d\u8d85\u8fc72\u6444\u6c0f\u5ea6\u51e0\u4e4e\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6cfd\u6797\u5361\u79f0\uff0c\u65b0\u7684\u6c14\u5019\u654f\u611f\u6027\u4f30\u503c\u8f83\u524d\u6709\u6240\u63d0\u9ad8\u4e3b\u8981\u662f\u7531\u4e8e\u6a21\u578b\u5206\u6790\u4e91\u5c42\u52a8\u6001\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\u53d1\u751f\u4e86\u53d8\u5316\u3002\u6a21\u578b\u53d1\u73b0\uff0c\u968f\u7740\u5168\u7403\u53d8\u6696\uff0c\u4e91\u5c42\u4e2d\u7684\u542b\u6c34\u91cf\u5c06\u4f4e\u4e8e\u5148\u524d\u9884\u671f\u3002\u4e91\u5c42\u5c06\u53d8\u8584\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u6839\u672c\u65e0\u6cd5\u6210\u578b\uff0c\u5bfc\u81f4&ldquo;\u66f4\u5f3a\u7684\u4e91\u5c42\u6b63\u53cd\u9988&rdquo;\u4ee5\u53ca\u989d\u5916\u7684\u5347\u6e29\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5728\u5bf9\u6a21\u578b\u8fdb\u884c\u8fd9\u4e00\u8c03\u6574\u4e4b\u524d\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u4eba\u5458\u66fe\u5bf9\u76ee\u524d<a href=\"https:\/\/ui.adsabs.harvard.edu\/abs\/2014AGUFM.A41J3190M\/abstract\">\u5168\u7403\u4e91\u5c42\u6700\u539a\u7684\u5730\u533a\u4e4b\u4e00<\/a>&mdash;&mdash;\u5357\u5927\u6d0b\u8fdb\u884c\u8fc7\u4e00\u6b21\u5b9e\u5730\u8c03\u67e5\u3002\u4ed6\u4eec\u7a7f\u8d8a\u4e91\u5c42\u65f6\u53d1\u73b0\u5176\u4e2d\u542b\u6c34\u91cf\u6bd4\u5148\u524d\u8bbe\u60f3\u7684\u66f4\u9ad8\uff0c\u542b\u51b0\u91cf\u5219\u66f4\u4f4e\u3002\u5b83\u4eec&ldquo;\u5728\u5149\u5b66\u4e0a\u66f4\u539a\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u9633\u5149\u53cd\u5c04\u80fd\u529b\u66f4\u5f3a\uff0c&rdquo;\u7f8e\u56fd\u5b87\u822a\u5c40\u7684\u827e\u7ef4&middot;\u5854\u6069\uff08Ivy 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href=\"https:\/\/news.ucar.edu\/132678\/ncars-new-climate-model-running-hot\">\u63a9\u76d6\u4e86\u4e8c\u6c27\u5316\u78b3\u79ef\u7d2f\u9020\u6210\u7684\u53d8\u6696\u6548\u5e94<\/a>\u3002<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>\u6765\u81ea\u536b\u661f\u7684\u771f\u5b9e\u6570\u636e\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u4eba\u5458\u5efa\u6a21\u5f97\u51fa\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u53ef\u80fd\u5df2\u7ecf\u6210\u771f\u3002<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>\u7814\u7a76\u4eba\u5458\u5206\u6790\u65b0\u6570\u636e\u540e\u53d1\u73b0\uff0c\u6c14\u6eb6\u80f6\u7684\u51b7\u5374\u6548\u5e94\u548c\u4e8c\u6c27\u5316\u78b3\u7684\u53d8\u6696\u6548\u5e94\u90fd\u6bd4\u5148\u524d\u8bbe\u60f3\u7684\u66f4\u5f3a\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u5411\u4e0a\u4fee\u6b63\u4e86\u6c14\u5019\u5bf9\u4e8c\u6c27\u5316\u78b3\u654f\u611f\u6027\u7684\u4f30\u8ba1\u3002\u968f\u7740\u4e8c\u6c27\u5316\u78b3\u7684\u4e0d\u65ad\u79ef\u7d2f\u548c\u5bf9\u70df\u96fe\u66f4\u52a0\u4e25\u683c\u7684\u63a7\u5236\uff0c\u9897\u7c92\u7269\u6c14\u6eb6\u80f6\u7684\u63a9\u853d\u6548\u5e94\u52bf\u5fc5\u5c06\u51cf\u5f31\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\u6c14\u5019\u5bf9\u4e8c\u6c27\u5316\u78b3\u7684\u654f\u611f\u6027\u589e\u52a0\u5c06\u5360\u636e\u4e3b\u5bfc\u5730\u4f4d\uff0c\u8fdb\u800c\u66f4\u52a0\u5267\u4e86\u5168\u7403\u53d8\u6696\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6765\u81ea\u536b\u661f\u7684\u771f\u5b9e\u6570\u636e\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u4eba\u5458\u5efa\u6a21\u5f97\u51fa\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u53ef\u80fd\u5df2\u7ecf\u6210\u771f\u3002\u7f8e\u56fd\u5b87\u822a\u5c40\u5170\u5229\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u5fc3\u7684\u8bfa\u66fc&middot;\u52d2\u5e03\uff08Norman Loeb\uff09\u8868\u793a\uff0c2013\u5e74\u4ee5\u6765\u5168\u7403\u5e73\u5747\u6c14\u6e29\u6025\u5267\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u4e0e\u6b64\u540c\u65f6\uff0c<a href=\"https:\/\/news.ucar.edu\/132678\/ncars-new-climate-model-running-hot\">\u6d77\u6d0b\u4e91\u5c42\u8986\u76d6\u4e5f\u5728\u51cf\u5c11<\/a>\u3002\u4ed6\u8ba4\u4e3a\u4e91\u5c42\u7684\u51cf\u5c11\u53ef\u80fd\u4e0e\u4e2d\u56fd\u548c\u5317\u7f8e\u52a0\u5f3a\u6c61\u67d3\u63a7\u5236\u6709\u5173\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5176\u4ed6\u7814\u7a76\u4eba\u5458\u62a5\u544a\u79f0\uff0c\u6e29\u6696\u5e74\u4efd<a href=\"https:\/\/phys.org\/news\/2016-08-clouds-tropics.html\">\u70ed\u5e26\u5730\u533a\u7684\u4f4e\u4e91\u5c42\u8f83\u5c11<\/a>\u3002\u66fe\u5c31\u804c\u4e8e\u82cf\u9ece\u4e16\u8054\u90a6\u7406\u5de5\u5b66\u9662\u7684\u6c14\u5019\u79d1\u5b66\u5bb6\u5854\u76ae\u5965&middot;\u65bd\u8010\u5fb7\uff08Tapio Schneider\uff09\u57282016\u5e74\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u5728\u8ba1\u7b97\u4e2d\u52a0\u5165\u8fd9\u5c42\u8054\u7cfb\u540e\uff0c\u6c14\u5019\u6a21\u578b\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u5168\u7403\u53d8\u6696\u901f\u5ea6\u66f4\u5feb\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u65bd\u8010\u5fb7\u76ee\u524d\u5728\u52a0\u5dde\u7406\u5de5\u5b66\u9662\u5de5\u4f5c\u3002\u53bb\u5e742\u6708\u4ed6\u63d0\u51fa\u5168\u7403\u4e91\u5c42\u8986\u76d6\u53ef\u80fd\u6709\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e34\u754c\u70b9\uff0c\u4e00\u65e6\u7a81\u7834\uff0c\u4e91\u5c42\u5c06&ldquo;\u53d8\u5f97\u4e0d\u7a33\u5b9a\uff0c\u8fdb\u800c\u7834\u88c2&rdquo;\uff0c\u5bfc\u81f4\u5168\u7403\u6c14\u6e29\u87ba\u65cb\u5f0f\u4e0a\u5347\u3002\u8fd9\u4e00\u89c2\u70b9\u5728\u5b66\u754c\u6380\u8d77\u4e86\u4e00\u756a\u98ce\u6d6a\u3002\u65bd\u8010\u5fb7\u8868\u793a\u81ea\u5df1\u4f7f\u7528\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u5206\u8fa8\u7387\u7cbe\u7ec6\uff0c\u6bd4\u7528\u4e8e\u8ba1\u7b97\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u66f4\u80fd\u4ee3\u8868\u4e91\u5c42\u7684\u771f\u6b63\u52a8\u6001\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u53ea\u6709\u5f53\u4e8c\u6c27\u5316\u78b3\u6c34\u5e73\u8fbe\u52301200ppm\uff0c\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u5de5\u4e1a\u5316\u524d\u6c34\u5e73\u7684\u56db\u500d\uff0c\u5f53\u524d\u6c34\u5e73\u7684\u4e09\u500d\u65f6\uff0c\u624d\u4f1a\u8fbe\u5230\u8fd9\u4e2a\u4e34\u754c\u70b9\u3002\u4f46\u636e\u65bd\u8010\u5fb7\u9884\u6d4b\uff0c\u4e00\u65e6\u7a81\u7834\u4e34\u754c\u70b9\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u4e91\u5c42\u4e27\u5931\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u6c14\u6e29\u5c06\u98d9\u53478\u6444\u6c0f\u5ea6\u3002\u4ed6\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u4e34\u754c\u70b9&ldquo;\u53ef\u80fd\u662f<a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41561-019-0310-1\">\u5730\u8d28\u65f6\u671f\u6c14\u5019\u7a81\u7136\u53d1\u751f\u53d8\u5316<\/a>\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u539f\u56e0&rdquo;\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u901a\u8fc7\u6a21\u578b\u5206\u6790\u5168\u7403\u53d8\u6696\u80cc\u666f\u4e0b\u4e91\u5c42\u7684\u53d8\u5316\u800c\u5f97\u51fa\u5982\u6b64\u53ef\u6015\u7684\u6c14\u5019\u9884\u6d4b\uff0c\u8fd9\u5df2\u7ecf\u4e0d\u662f\u7b2c\u4e00\u6b21\u4e86\u300215\u5e74\u524d\uff0c\u6211\u53c2\u52a0\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u6c14\u5019\u5efa\u6a21\u5e08\u7814\u8ba8\u4f1a\uff0c\u82f1\u56fd\u6c14\u8c61\u5c40\u54c8\u5fb7\u5229\u4e2d\u5fc3\u7684\u8a79\u59c6\u65af&middot;\u58a8\u83f2\uff08James Murphy\uff09\u5728\u4f1a\u4e0a\u63a2\u8ba8\u4e86\u4ed6\u5982\u4f55\u8c03\u6574\u4ed6\u4eec\u4e2d\u5fc3\u7684\u6807\u51c6\u6c14\u5019\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u66f4\u52a0\u5145\u5206\u5730\u53cd\u6620\u4e91\u5c42\u8986\u76d6\u3001\u6301\u7eed\u65f6\u95f4\u548c\u539a\u5ea6\u7684\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u3002\u5f97\u51fa\u7684\u56fe\u8868\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u5347\u6e29\u6700\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u4ecd\u4fdd\u6301\u57283\u6444\u6c0f\u5ea6\u5de6\u53f3\uff0c\u4f46\u9876\u90e8\u5e26\u6709\u4e00\u6761&ldquo;\u957f\u5c3e&rdquo;\u3002\u82e5\u4e8c\u6c27\u5316\u78b3\u542b\u91cf\u589e\u957f\u4e00\u500d\uff0c\u6c14\u6e29\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\uff08\u7528\u4ed6\u7684\u8bdd\u8bf4\u5c31\u662f\u6ee1\u6253\u6ee1\u7b97\uff09\u4e0a\u534710\u6444\u6c0f\u5ea6\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u725b\u6d25\u5927\u5b66\u7684\u5927\u536b&middot;\u65af\u5766\u798f\u65af\uff08David Stainforth\uff09\u5bf9\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u6a21\u578b\u505a\u51fa\u4e86\u540c\u6837\u7684\u8c03\u6574\uff0c\u8fd9\u6b21\u7684&ldquo;\u957f\u5c3e&rdquo;\u5ef6\u4f38\u5230\u4e8612\u6444\u6c0f\u5ea6\u3002\u4e8c\u8005\u90fd\u5728\u300a\u81ea\u7136\u300b\u6742\u5fd7\u4e0a\u53d1\u8868\u4e86\u81ea\u5df1\u7684<a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/nature02771\">\u53d1\u73b0<\/a>\u3002\u4f46\u540e\u6765\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u53d1\u73b0\u5e76\u672a\u5f97\u5230\u5176\u4ed6\u5efa\u6a21\u5e08\u7684\u91cd\u89c6\uff0c\u6ca1\u6709\u88ab\u7eb3\u5165IPCC\u6c14\u5019\u79d1\u5b66\u8bc4\u4f30\u7684\u6458\u8981\u4e2d\u3002\u4f46\u6700\u65b0\u7684\u4e3b\u6d41\u6a21\u578b\u5f97\u51fa\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u58a8\u83f2\u548c\u65af\u5766\u798f\u65af\u786e\u5b9e\u8a00\u4e4b\u6709\u7269\u3002<\/p>\n<p><em>\u672c\u6587\u9996\u53d1\u4e8e<a href=\"https:\/\/e360.yale.edu\/features\/why-clouds-are-the-key-to-new-troubling-projections-on-warming\">\u300a\u8036\u9c81360\u5ea6\u73af\u5883\u89c2\u5bdf\u300b<\/a>\uff08Yale E360\uff09<\/em><\/p>\n<p>\u7ffb\u8bd1\uff1aYAN<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u5168\u7403\u53d8\u6696\u5c06\u51cf\u5c11\u4e91\u5c42\u8986\u76d6\uff0c\u5bfc\u81f4\u66f4\u591a\u9633\u5149\u7167\u5c04\u5230\u5730\u7403\uff0c\u5f17\u96f7\u5fb7&middot;\u76ae\u5c14\u65af\u5728\u8036\u9c81360\u5ea6\u73af\u5883\u89c2\u5bdf\u4e2d\u5199\u9053\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":694,"featured_media":60775,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[776],"tags":[654,50040209],"hashtags":[],"country":[],"class_list":["post-44375","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-776","tag-carbon-emissions-zh","tag-science-zh"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.0 (Yoast SEO v26.0) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ 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