{"id":44416,"date":"2020-05-05T09:02:00","date_gmt":"2020-05-05T09:02:00","guid":{"rendered":""},"modified":"2020-06-22T23:21:28","modified_gmt":"2020-06-22T23:21:28","slug":"44416","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/zh\/3\/44416\/","title":{"rendered":"2070\u5e74\u6216\u5c06\u670935\u4ebf\u4eba\u751f\u6d3b\u5728\u9177\u70ed\u5730\u533a"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\u4e00\u7bc7\u65b0\u8bba\u6587\u79f0\uff0c\u672a\u676550\u5e74\u95f4\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u53ef\u80fd\u5bfc\u81f435\u4ebf\u4eba\u751f\u6d3b\u7684\u73af\u5883\u6c14\u6e29\u9ad8\u4e8e\u5386\u53f2\u4e0a\u5927\u591a\u6570\u4eba\u7c7b\u6240\u5c45\u4f4f\u7684\u6c14\u5019\u533a\u95f4\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6587\u7ae0\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u76ee\u524d\u5168\u7403\u5927\u591a\u6570\u4eba\u53e3\u751f\u6d3b\u5728\u5e74\u5e73\u5747\u6c14\u6e29\u4e3a11-15\u6444\u6c0f\u5ea6\u7684\u5730\u533a\uff0c\u8fd8\u6709\u4e00\u90e8\u5206\u4eba\u53e3\u805a\u5c45\u5728\u5e74\u5747\u6c14\u6e2920-25\u6444\u6c0f\u5ea6\u7684\u5370\u5ea6\u5b63\u98ce\u5730\u533a\u3002\u6587\u7ae0\u8fd8\u79f0\uff0c\u4ece\u8fc7\u53bb6000\u591a\u5e74\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u6765\u770b\uff0c\u4e0a\u8ff0\u6c14\u5019\u6761\u4ef6\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u4eba\u7c7b\u7e41\u884d\u751f\u606f\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u5173\u952e\u56e0\u7d20\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u8be5\u7814\u7a76\u79f0\uff0c\u5728\u51e0\u4e4e\u4e0d\u91c7\u53d6\u4efb\u4f55\u6c14\u5019\u884c\u52a8\u7684<a 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src=\"https:\/\/chinadialogue-production.s3.amazonaws.com\/uploads\/content_image\/content_image\/6887\/by_2070_one_third_of_world_people_facing_over_29C.jpg\" alt=\"\" \/><\/a><span class=\"caption\">\u70b9\u51fb\u67e5\u770b\u5927\u56fe\u3002\u9ed1\u8272\u533a\u57df\u4e3a\u5f53\u524d\u5e74\u5747\u6c14\u6e29\u8d85\u8fc729C\u7684\u5730\u533a\uff0c\u4e3b\u8981\u96c6\u4e2d\u5728\u6492\u54c8\u62c9\u6c99\u6f20\u5730\u533a\u3002\u52302070\u5e74\uff0c\u5728\u9ad8\u6392\u653e\u60c5\u5883\u4e0b\uff0c\u6216\u5c06\u670935\u4ebf\u4eba\u53e3\u751f\u6d3b\u5728\u9177\u70ed\u7684\u6e29\u5ea6\u4e0b\uff0c\u5373\u9634\u5f71\u533a\u57df\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p>\u8fd9\u7bc7\u8bba\u6587\u53d1\u8868\u5728\u300a\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u5bb6\u79d1\u5b66\u9662\u9662\u520a\u300b\uff08Proceedings of the National Academies of Sciences\uff09\u4e0a\u3002\u8be5\u6587\u7b2c\u4e00\u4f5c\u8005\u3001\u5357\u4eac\u5927\u5b66\u751f\u6001\u5b66\u5bb6\u5f90\u9a70\u79f0\uff0c\u76ee\u524d\u4ec52000\u4e07\u4eba\uff08\u5360\u5168\u7403\u4eba\u53e3\u76840.3%\uff09\u751f\u6d3b\u5728\u5e73\u5747\u6c14\u6e29\u9ad8\u4e8e29\u6444\u6c0f\u5ea6\u7684\u5730\u533a\u3002\u8be5\u7814\u7a76\u79f0\uff0c\u8fbe\u5230\u8fd9\u4e00\u6c14\u5019\u6761\u4ef6\u7684\u5730\u533a\u76ee\u524d\u4ec5\u5360\u5168\u7403\u9646\u5730\u9762\u79ef\u76840.8%\uff0c\u4e14\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u4f4d\u4e8e\u6492\u54c8\u62c9\u6c99\u6f20\u3002<\/p>\n<h2>\u4eba\u53e3\u8fc1\u5f99<\/h2>\n<p>\u7814\u7a76\u53d1\u73b0\u5370\u5ea6\u5c06\u6210\u4e3a\u53d7\u5f71\u54cd\u6700\u5927\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\u3002\u5982\u679c\u4e0d\u8fc1\u79fb\uff0c2070\u5e74\u5370\u5ea6\u5c06\u670912\u4ebf\u4eba\u751f\u6d3b\u5728\u5e74\u574729\u6444\u6c0f\u5ea6\u4ee5\u4e0a\u7684\u9ad8\u6e29\u4e2d\uff0c\u800c\u540c\u6837\u53d7\u5230\u4e25\u91cd\u5f71\u54cd\u7684\u5c3c\u65e5\u5229\u4e9a\u5c06\u6709\u5927\u7ea65\u4ebf\u4eba\u751f\u6d3b\u5728\u8fd9\u4e00\u9ad8\u6e29\u73af\u5883\u4e2d\uff0c\u5df4\u57fa\u65af\u5766\u548c\u5370\u5ea6\u5c3c\u897f\u4e9a\u5219\u5c06\u6709\u4e0a\u4ebf\u4eba\u7ecf\u53d7\u9ad8\u6e29\u7684\u7099\u70e4\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5728\u9ad8\u6392\u653e\u60c5\u5883\u4e0b\uff0c\u8bb8\u591a\u5730\u533a\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u540c\u65f6\u51fa\u73b0\u4eba\u53e3\u8fc1\u5f99\u548c\u8015\u5730\u7528\u9014\u7684\u53d8\u5316\uff0c\u8bba\u6587\u79f0\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u8fd9\u9879\u7814\u7a76\u6e05\u695a\u5730\u8868\u660e\u6211\u4eec\u9700\u8981\u5f00\u59cb\u7b79\u5212\u6c14\u5019\u79fb\u6c11\u7684\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u5e76\u672a\u53c2\u4e0e\u8be5\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u82f1\u56fd\u6c14\u5019\u4e0e\u79fb\u6c11\u8054\u76df\uff08Climate and Migration Coalition\uff09\u6210\u5458\u4e9a\u5386\u514b\u65af\u00b7\u5170\u5fb7\u5c14\uff08Alex Randell\uff09\u79f0\u3002\u201c\u5bf9\u8bb8\u591a\u4eba\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u642c\u5bb6\u662f\u5e94\u5bf9\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u552f\u4e00\u9009\u62e9\uff0c\u201d\u4ed6\u8bf4\u3002\u201c\u6211\u4eec\u9700\u8981\u73b0\u5728\u5c31\u5f00\u59cb\u7b79\u5212\uff0c\u4ee5\u4fbf\u90a3\u4e00\u5929\u5230\u6765\u65f6\u4e00\u5207\u90fd\u80fd\u6709\u6761\u4e0d\u7d0a\u5730\u8fdb\u884c\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\u642c\u8fc1\u5e76\u4e0d\u4e00\u5b9a\u610f\u5473\u7740\u79bb\u5f00\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\uff0c\u540c\u6837\u6ca1\u6709\u53c2\u4e0e\u8be5\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u52b3\u91cc\u57c3\u5927\u5b66\uff08Wilfrid Laurier University\uff09\u5730\u7406\u4e0e\u73af\u5883\u5b66\u6559\u6388\u7f57\u4f2f\u7279\u00b7\u9ea6\u514b\u83b1\u66fc\uff08Robert McLeman\uff09\u8bf4\u3002<\/p>\n<p><iframe style=\"width: 100%; height: 600px;\" src=\"https:\/\/flo.uri.sh\/visualisation\/2268579\/embed\" 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