{"id":60081213,"date":"2025-05-15T15:53:27","date_gmt":"2025-05-15T14:53:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/?p=60081213"},"modified":"2025-05-15T16:01:28","modified_gmt":"2025-05-15T15:01:28","slug":"60081213","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/zh\/1\/60081213\/","title":{"rendered":"\u5728\u4e2d\u7f8e\u8d38\u6613\u6218\u4f59\u6ce2\u4e2d\uff0c\u4fdd\u62a4\u5df4\u897f\u68ee\u6797"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u4e2d\u7f8e\u8d38\u6613\u4e89\u7aef\u6b63\u5728\u524a\u5f31\u7f8e\u56fd\u5728\u4e2d\u56fd\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u5730\u4f4d\u3002\u65e9\u524d\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd<a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnnbrasil.com.br\/economia\/macroeconomia\/em-documento-casa-branca-diz-que-tarifas-contra-china-totalizam-245\/\">\u8d85\u8fc7200%<\/a>\u7684\u5bf9\u534e\u5173\u7a0e\u4ee5\u53ca\u4e2d\u7f8e\u53cc\u65b9\u76f8\u4e92\u91c7\u53d6<a href=\"https:\/\/www.npr.org\/2025\/04\/07\/nx-s1-5355148\/china-trump-tariffs-trade-war-retaliation\">\u62a5\u590d\u6027\u63aa\u65bd<\/a>\uff0c\u4e5f\u63a8\u9ad8\u4e86\u5df4\u897f\u519c\u4e1a\u4f01\u4e1a\u6269\u5927\u5bf9\u534e\u51fa\u53e3\u7684\u9884\u671f\uff0c\u4f46\u73af\u5883\u4fdd\u62a4\u4eba\u58eb\u5219\u62c5\u5fc3\uff0c\u5df4\u897f\u68ee\u6797\u5730\u533a\u6216\u5c06\u627f\u53d7\u66f4\u5927\u7684\u538b\u529b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u4e13\u5bb6\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u5927\u8c46\u3001\u7389\u7c73\u3001\u68c9\u82b1\u3001\u725b\u8089\u548c\u9e21\u8089\u7b49\u4ea7\u54c1\u6700\u5177\u77ed\u671f\u9700\u6c42\u589e\u957f\u6f5c\u529b\u3002\u5df4\u897f\u5728\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5e02\u573a\u65e9\u5df2\u5efa\u7acb\u7a33\u56fa\u5730\u4f4d\uff0c\u4eca\u5e74\u66f4<a href=\"https:\/\/agenciagov.ebc.com.br\/noticias\/202503\/recorde-na-safra-de-graos-em-2025-sera-destaque-da-voz-do-brasil-desta-terca-18%23:~:text=Entre%25252520os%25252520assuntos%25252520que%25252520ser%252525C3%252525A3o,de%25252520toneladas%25252520a%25252520serem%25252520colhidas.\">\u6709\u671b<\/a>\u521b\u4e0b\u5386\u53f2\u6027\u7cae\u98df\u4e30\u6536\uff0c\u5176\u7ade\u4e89\u4f18\u52bf\u5c24\u4e3a\u7a81\u51fa\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5df4\u4e2d\u4f01\u4e1a\u5bb6\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a\uff08Brazil-China Business Council\uff0c\u7b80\u79f0CEBC\uff09\u56fd\u9645\u5206\u6790\u5e08\u5361\u7c73\u62c9\u00b7\u963f\u7c73\u6208\uff08Camila Amigo\uff09\u544a\u8bc9\u5bf9\u8bdd\u5730\u7403\uff1a\u201c\u77ed\u671f\u5185\u7684\u589e\u957f\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u5341\u5206\u663e\u8457\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\u5728\u4e4b\u524d\u7684\u8d38\u6613\u6218\u4e2d\u5c31\u51fa\u73b0\u8fc7\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u57282018\u5e74\u52302019\u5e74\u95f4\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5f53\u65f6\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u603b\u7edf\u7279\u6717\u666e\u5728\u5176\u7b2c\u4e00\u4efb\u671f\u5185<a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnnbrasil.com.br\/blogs\/fernando-nakagawa\/economia\/macroeconomia\/guerra-comercial-de-2018-eua-reconhece-que-brasil-foi-o-maior-vencedor\/%252523:~:text=O%25252520USDA%25252520estima%25252520que%25252520entre,representou%25252520impressionantes%2525252071%25252525%25252520da%25252520perda.\">\u63d0\u9ad8<\/a>\u4e86\u5bf9\u591a\u4e2a\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u5173\u7a0e\uff0c\u7279\u522b\u662f\u9488\u5bf9\u4e2d\u56fd\uff0c\u800c\u4e2d\u56fd\u5219\u91c7\u53d6\u4e86\u53cd\u5236\u63aa\u65bd\u3002\u7f8e\u56fd\u519c\u4e1a\u90e8\u7684\u6570\u636e\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u8fd9\u573a\u4e2d\u7f8e\u4ea4\u950b\u5bf9\u5168\u7403\u4ea7\u4e1a\u94fe\u4ea7\u751f\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u5df4\u897f\u5219\u901a\u8fc7\u63a5\u624b\u7f8e\u56fd\u5728\u534e\u5927\u8c46\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u4efd\u989d<a href=\"https:\/\/ers.usda.gov\/sites\/default\/files\/_laserfiche\/publications\/102980\/ERR-304.pdf?v=30036\">\u83b7\u76ca<\/a>\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5f53\u524d\uff0c\u65b0\u589e\u7684\u5916\u90e8\u9700\u6c42\u53ef\u80fd\u5bfc\u81f4\u5df4\u897f\u7cae\u98df\u4ef7\u683c\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65<a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnnbrasil.com.br\/economia\/macroeconomia\/peso-da-alimentacao-aumenta-no-orcamento-das-familias-de-baixa-renda\/%252523:~:text=Desde%25252520o%25252520in%252525C3%252525ADcio%25252520da%25252520pandemia,o%25252520dobro%25252520da%25252520infla%252525C3%252525A7%252525C3%252525A3o%25252520m%252525C3%252525A9dia.\">\u4e0a\u6da8<\/a>\uff0c\u800c\u81ea\u65b0\u51a0\u75ab\u60c5\u4ee5\u6765\uff0c\u7cae\u98df\u4ef7\u683c\u589e\u901f\u4fbf\u5df2\u9ad8\u4e8e\u603b\u4f53\u901a\u80c0\u7387\u3002\u5df4\u897f\u7684\u6e2f\u53e3\u3001\u516c\u8def\u3001\u94c1\u8def\u7b49\u7cae\u98df\u8fd0\u8f93\u57fa\u7840\u8bbe\u65bd\u672c\u5c31\u5b58\u5728<a href=\"https:\/\/www12.senado.leg.br\/noticias\/materias\/2024\/03\/08\/nova-fronteira-agricola-enfrenta-dificuldades-no-escoamento-da-producao%252523:~:text=O%25252520escoamento%25252520da%25252520produ%252525C3%252525A7%252525C3%252525A3o,%25252520no,o%25252520escoamento%25252520e%25252520as%25252520exporta%252525C3%252525A7%252525C3%252525B5es.\">\u74f6\u9888<\/a>\uff0c\u51fa\u53e3\u589e\u957f\u6216\u5c06\u52a0\u5267\u7269\u6d41\u62e5\u5835\uff0c\u8fdb\u800c\u63a8\u9ad8\u8fd0\u8f93\u6210\u672c\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u636e\u4e9a\u9a6c\u900a\u4eba\u7c7b\u4e0e\u73af\u5883\u7814\u7a76\u6240\uff08Amazon Institute for People and the Environment\uff0c\u7b80\u79f0Imazon\uff09\u7814\u7a76\u5458\u4fdd\u7f57\u00b7\u5df4\u96f7\u6258\uff08Paulo Barreto\uff09\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u5386\u53f2\u4e0a\uff0c\u5df4\u897f\u519c\u4ea7\u54c1\u51fa\u53e3\u8fbe\u5230\u9ad8\u5cf0\u65f6\uff0c\u5f80\u5f80\u8fd8\u4f1a\u4f34\u968f\u7740\u68ee\u6797\u780d\u4f10\u7684\u52a0\u5267\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u585e\u62c9\u591a\uff08Cerrado\uff09\u548c\u4e9a\u9a6c\u900a\u5730\u533a\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.researchgate.net\/publication\/354321510_Analise_das_taxas_de_desmatamento_e_seus_fatores_associados_na_Amazonia_Legal_Brasileira_nas_ultimas_tres_decadas\">\u7814\u7a76<\/a>\u548c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.bbc.com\/portuguese\/brasil-49683787\">\u5206\u6790<\/a>\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c1995\u5e74\u52302004\u5e74\u95f4\uff0c\u4e3a\u4e86\u6ee1\u8db3\u56fd\u9645\u5e02\u573a\u4e0d\u65ad\u589e\u957f\u7684\u5927\u8c46\u548c\u725b\u8089\u9700\u6c42\uff0c\u5df4\u897f\u519c\u4e1a\u7528\u5730\u548c\u8089\u725b\u5b58\u680f\u91cf\u90fd\u6709\u6240\u589e\u52a0\uff0c\u4e9a\u9a6c\u900a\u96e8\u6797\u7684\u68ee\u6797\u780d\u4f10\u7387\u4e5f\u51fa\u73b0\u8df3\u8dc3\u5f0f\u589e\u957f\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-cd-article-image aligncenter block--article-image block--article-image--article\" itemscope itemtype=\"http:\/\/schema.org\/ImageObject\"><div class=\"block--article-image__column\"><div class=\"hide-expand block--article-image__image\"><img class=\"lazy\" data-src=\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/Flavia_Milhorance_Wawi_soja_2-scaled.jpg\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/Flavia_Milhorance_Wawi_soja_2-scaled.jpg 2000w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 600px) 768px, (max-width: 1024px) 1024px, 2000px\" alt=\"The border between the Wawi territory and the soybean farm\"\/><\/div><div class=\"block--article-image__content\"><div itemprop=\"caption\" class=\"block--article-image__caption\">\u5df4\u897f\u9a6c\u6258\u683c\u7f57\u7d22\u5dde\uff08Mato Grosso\uff09\uff0c\u4e0e\u74e6\u7ef4\uff08Wawi\uff09\u571f\u8457\u4eba\u6c11\u9886\u5730\u6bd7\u90bb\u7684\u4e00\u7247\u5927\u8c46\u79cd\u690d\u56ed\u3002\u957f\u671f\u4ee5\u6765\uff0c\u519c\u4e1a\u6269\u5f20\u7ed9\u4e9a\u9a6c\u900a\u68ee\u6797\u53ca\u5176\u4f20\u7edf\u793e\u533a\u5e26\u6765\u4e86\u4e0d\u5c0f\u7684\u538b\u529b\u3002\u56fe\u7247\u6765\u6e90\uff1aFl\u00e1via Milhorance \/ \u5bf9\u8bdd\u5730\u7403<\/div><\/div><\/div><meta itemprop=\"contentUrl\" content=\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/Flavia_Milhorance_Wawi_soja_2-scaled.jpg\"\/><meta itemprop=\"contentSize\" content=\"843 KB\"\/><meta itemprop=\"height\" content=\"1334\"\/><meta itemprop=\"width\" content=\"2000\"\/><meta itemprop=\"author\"\/><meta itemprop=\"representativeOfPage\" content=\"true\"\/><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-\u5df4\u897f\u5360\u636e\u4e2d\u56fd\u5e02\u573a\u4e3b\u5bfc\u5730\u4f4d\">\u5df4\u897f\u5360\u636e\u4e2d\u56fd\u5e02\u573a\u4e3b\u5bfc\u5730\u4f4d<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">2017\u5e74\uff0c\u5728\u7279\u6717\u666e\u9996\u4e2a\u603b\u7edf\u4efb\u671f\u5185\uff0c\u4e2d\u7f8e\u7d27\u5f20\u5173\u7cfb\u5f00<a href=\"https:\/\/www1.folha.uol.com.br\/mercado\/2025\/04\/acompanhe-a-escalada-da-guerra-comercial-entre-eua-e-china-de-2017-ate-hoje.shtml\">\u59cb\u52a0\u5267<\/a>\u30022018\u5e74\uff0c\u968f\u7740\u4e24\u56fd\u76f8\u7ee7\u5ba3\u5e03\u5bf9\u5f7c\u6b64\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u5546\u54c1\u52a0\u5f81\u5173\u7a0e\uff0c\u53cc\u8fb9\u6469\u64e6\u8fbe\u5230\u9ad8\u6f6e\u3002\u4e2d\u56fd\u91c7\u53d6\u53cd\u5236\u63aa\u65bd\uff0c\u5bf9106\u79cd\u7f8e\u56fd\u5546\u54c1<a href=\"https:\/\/exame.com\/economia\/china-impoe-tarifas-de-25-para-importacoes-de-mais-de-100-produtos-dos-eua\/\">\u52a0\u5f81\u4e86<\/a>25%\u7684\u5173\u7a0e\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">2020\u5e74\uff0c\u4e2d\u7f8e<a href=\"https:\/\/ustr.gov\/phase-one\">\u7b7e\u7f72<\/a>\u7b2c\u4e00\u9636\u6bb5\u7ecf\u8d38\u534f\u8bae\uff0c\u8d38\u6613\u6469\u64e6\u4e00\u5ea6\u6709\u6240\u7f13\u548c\u3002\u6b21\u5e74\uff0c\u62dc\u767b\u5165\u4e3b\u767d\u5bab\u540e\uff0c\u5c3d\u7ba1\u653f\u6cbb\u91cd\u5fc3\u53d1\u751f\u8f6c\u79fb\uff0c\u5374\u57fa\u672c\u5ef6\u7eed\u4e86\u7279\u6717\u666e\u65f6\u671f\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u5173\u7a0e\u63aa\u65bd\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65<a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/business\/us-locks-steep-china-tariff-hikes-many-start-sept-27-2024-09-13\/\">\u63d0\u9ad8<\/a>\u4e86\u90e8\u5206\u4e2d\u56fd\u4ea7\u54c1\u7684\u5173\u7a0e\u7a0e\u7387\u30022025\u5e74\u7279\u6717\u666e\u91cd\u8fd4\u767d\u5bab\uff0c\u4e2d\u7f8e\u8d38\u6613\u4e89\u7aef\u518d\u5ea6\u5347\u7ea7\uff0c\u89c4\u6a21\u7a7a\u524d\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">2020\u5e74\u52302024\u5e74\u95f4\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u867d\u7136\u90e8\u5206\u6062\u590d\u4e86\u5bf9\u534e\u5927\u8c46\u548c\u725b\u8089\u51fa\u53e3\uff0c\u4f46\u5df4\u897f\u65e9\u5df2\u5728\u8d38\u6613\u6218\u6700\u6fc0\u70c8\u65f6\u586b\u8865\u4e86\u5e02\u573a\u7a7a\u767d\uff0c\u5e76\u5de9\u56fa\u4e86\u5728\u4e2d\u56fd\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u4e3b\u5bfc\u5730\u4f4d\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5168\u7403\u519c\u4e1a\u7814\u7a76\u673a\u6784Insper Agro Global\u4eca\u5e74\u53d1\u5e03\u7684<a href=\"https:\/\/agro.insper.edu.br\/storage\/papers\/February2025\/EUA%25252520x%25252520Brasil.pdf\">\u7814\u7a76<\/a>\u663e\u793a\uff0c 2018\u5e74\uff0c\u5df4\u897f\u5bf9\u534e\u519c\u4ea7\u54c1\u51fa\u53e3\u989d\u8fbe\u5230370\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u8d85\u8d8a\u7f8e\u56fd\uff0c\u6210\u4e3a\u4e2d\u56fd\u6700\u5927\u7684\u519c\u4ea7\u54c1\u4f9b\u5e94\u56fd\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5df4\u897f\u653f\u5e9c\u5916\u8d38\u6570\u636e\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u5c3d\u7ba1\u53ef\u80fd\u53d7\u5230\u5176\u4ed6\u56e0\u7d20\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u4f46\u4ece2016\u5e74\uff08\u5373\u7279\u6717\u666e\u653f\u5e9c\u53d1\u8d77\u8d38\u6613\u6218\u4e4b\u524d\uff09\u81f32024\u5e74\u95f4\uff0c\u5df4\u897f\u5bf9\u534e\u8089\u7c7b\u548c\u5927\u8c46\u51fa\u53e3\u589e\u957f\u663e\u8457\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u8089\u7c7b\u51fa\u53e3\u91cf\u4ece16.5\u4e07\u5428\u589e\u81f3132\u4e07\u5428\uff0c\u589e\u957f\u4e86\u4e03\u500d\uff0c\u800c\u5927\u8c46\u9500\u91cf\u5219\u589e\u957f\u4e8688%\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<iframe src='https:\/\/flo.uri.sh\/visualisation\/23131375\/embed' title='Interactive or visual content' class='flourish-embed-iframe' frameborder='0' scrolling='no' style='width:100%;height:70vh;' sandbox='allow-same-origin allow-forms allow-scripts allow-downloads allow-popups allow-popups-to-escape-sandbox allow-top-navigation-by-user-activation'><\/iframe>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5206\u6790\u4eba\u58eb\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e\u5df4\u897f\u5728\u4e2d\u56fd\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u5730\u4f4d\u5df2\u7ecf\u7a33\u56fa\uff0c\u672c\u8f6e\u5173\u7a0e\u6218\u5bf9\u5df4\u897f\u51fa\u53e3\u7684\u63a8\u52a8\u4f5c\u7528\u5c06\u4e0d\u5982\u4ee5\u5f80\u3002\u201c\u8fd9\u6b21\u8d38\u6613\u6218\u5bf9\u5df4\u897f\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u4e0d\u4f1a\u50cf\u7279\u6717\u666e\u9996\u4e2a\u4efb\u671f\u90a3\u6837\u663e\u8457\uff0c\u201d\u5361\u7c73\u62c9\u00b7\u963f\u7c73\u6208\u8868\u793a\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5df4\u897f\u519c\u4e1a\u90e8\u95e8\u7684\u4ee3\u8868\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u5df4\u897f\u7684\u5e02\u573a\u4f18\u52bf\u6050\u6015\u96be\u4ee5\u957f\u671f\u6301\u7eed\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5df4\u897f\u519c\u5546\u534f\u4f1a\uff08Brazilian Agribusiness Association\uff09\u526f\u4e3b\u5e2d\u82f1\u6208\u00b7\u666e\u52d2\u683c\uff08Ingo 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