Those who know how to surf understand that the rhythm of the waves changes. Clinging to the board, watching the ocean, you decide which wave to take or let go, calculating the direction. And suddenly you are already on your feet, gliding through the sea … aligned with the rhythm of the ocean. Looking at the horizon, you can clearly see what is coming.
This year has been a decisive one in the management of the ecological crises that plague the ocean. We are currently surfing between three UN Conferences of the Parties (COPs), dedicated to three different UN conventions. Each has a different agenda, but also several elements in common. Among them, the ocean stands out as a cross-cutting and potentially unifying theme.
But despite its importance, there is a deficit of attention being paid to the ocean and its three crises. Climate change, pollution and biodiversity loss on the seas are already manifesting in rising sea levels, record water temperatures, changes in precipitation, ocean acidification and deoxygenation, and the decline of ecosystems.
Three UN gatherings dominate the end-of-year environmental agenda: the Convention on Biological Diversity’s COP16 in Colombia, the Framework Convention on Climate Change’s COP29 in Azerbaijan, and the Convention to Combat Desertification’s COP16 in Saudi Arabia. Will the ocean command the attention it demands? Let’s dive in.
October | Biodiversity, COP16 | Cali
In 2022, the parties to the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework (KMGBF) set a milestone target of protecting 30% of terrestrial and marine areas by 2030. As they gathered in Cali last month, it became clear that global ocean protection languishes far short of this goal.
Another UN treaty will be a key building block in reaching this goal: the Agreement on the Conservation and Sustainable Use of Biodiversity Beyond National Jurisdiction – otherwise known as the High Seas Treaty. Once it has been ratified by 60 countries (currently only 15 have done so, after France recently joined the list) it will enable the establishment of marine protected areas on the high seas, the two thirds of the ocean that lies beyond national jurisdiction. Protecting this will complement efforts to reach the KMGBF’s 30% target.
Ocean protection is further strengthened by other international instruments negotiated in recent years: the Port State Measures Agreement and the Fisheries Subsidies Agreement. Both are designed to combat illegal fishing and promote marine sustainability.
Funding, however, remained a central and outstanding challenge at Cali’s COP16.
The Latin American and Caribbean Network for a Sustainable Financial System (REDFIS) says funding specifically allocated to biodiversity protection and conservation in each country must be established. The network says the current financial resources on the table are insufficient, and the critical situation of the debt markets in Global South countries is diverting funds that could combat climate change to pay off interest. REDFIS also says more effective mechanisms are needed to channel funds directly to those who protect nature. In particular, local communities, Indigenous peoples and African descendants who manage marine areas.
November | Climate change, COP29 | Baku
A turning point for climate change discussions to sufficiently incorporate the ocean is hopefully indicated by a recent report. Compiled by the facilitators of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change’s “ocean dialogue”, the report emphasises the need for synergies between various UN multilateral frameworks. For example, between the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, the Agreement on the Conservation and Sustainable Use of Biodiversity Beyond National Jurisdiction, and the Global Biodiversity Framework. The report stresses this collaboration is critical to the success of national policies on climate change, including adaptation and mitigation.
A central theme of COP29 will be how to implement climate pledges. The ocean dialogue report urges countries to unify their efforts to avoid duplication and strengthen collective action on oceans. How to fund the climate pledges of developing countries will feature prominently.
For Latin America, it is crucial to establish a New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG) defining a level of international support for climate finance that effectively supports developing countries in protecting their waters. In addition, countries should integrate oceans into their Nationally Determined Contributions and National Adaptation Plans by 2025 – both of which detail countries’ efforts to reduce carbon dioxide emissions and adapt to climate change.
Under the 2015 Paris Agreement, countries are required to prepare an outline for their efforts to reduce national emissions and adapt to the impacts of climate change. These commitments are referred to as Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs).
NDCs are submitted every five years, and successive NDCs are supposed to be more ambitious than previous ones (the so-called “ratchet mechanism”). Combined, these national targets should amount to a coordinated global effort to reduce the severity and impact of climate change.
Technology is emerging as a controversial issue where ocean concerns meet climate change, particularly in two areas. The first is geoengineering for marine carbon sequestration, as supervised by the UN’s International Maritime Organization. The consequences of such technologies are yet to be decisively proven. They could enlarge the ocean’s absorption of carbon dioxide, but they could also fail to make a significant difference and further damage already battered ecosystems.
The second area is deep sea mining, supervised by the International Seabed Authority. Some experts worry this could disrupt carbon sequestration in the deep, while advocates say it is a vital source of elements needed for the green transition. Nations including several in Latin America are promoting a moratorium. That would allow for further scientific research on these little-understood deep-sea ecosystems, applying a precautionary principle in the face of possible environmental impacts.
For significant progress to be made in protecting the oceans in Baku, agreement on concrete action is needed for all the above areas.
December | Desertification, COP16 | Riyadh
The connection between land and ocean is of particular relevance to the third COP of 2024: in Saudi Arabia, members of the UN Convention to Combat Desertification will gather for their 16th conference.
In addressing the intensification of droughts, the convention stresses the need to align efforts with the findings of the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The convention’s approach is holistic: it highlights the interrelationship of terrestrial and marine ecosystems and encourages development that strengthens their resilience. It also recognises that pressures on ocean ecosystems and water resources are intimately linked to the need to secure food and water for millions of people.
This year has been marked by devastating cyclones and unprecedented ocean warming, alerting the world to the fundamental need to protect the oceans to mitigate climate change and safeguard biodiversity.
It is encouraging to note that behind every political decision there is a relentless activist struggle. One shaped by local, Indigenous and African-descendant communities that are increasingly mobilised to protect the oceans.
As surfers know, it takes balance to get on the board. Taming the waves of change, which are already crashing, demands a triple balance: being guided by scientific and local knowledge, taking permanent action that is forceful, and having high ambition in the work to mitigate climate change. Get it right and before we know it, we will be on our feet, gliding across the sea.
