With the latest UN climate conference fast approaching – COP29 in Baku, Azerbaijan, 11-22 November – the government of Pakistan is gearing up to make its case before the world. Pakistani civil society organisations have also become involved, holding stakeholder consultations. One such meeting was convened in the week of 14 October by the Institute of Strategic Studies, to highlight the issues to be negotiated in Baku and mobilise support for climate action at home.
Pakistan’s ambitions for COP29 are high. The prime minister, Shehbaz Sharif, is likely to attend the high-level segment of the conference, although a formal decision is yet to be announced. The Pakistani delegation will comprise officials from the Ministry of Climate Change and the National Disaster Management Authority, with the Foreign Office participating in the negotiations. Officials representing the provinces and autonomous regions will also be there. Members of the parliamentary standing bodies on climate change are also likely to attend.
Matching agendas with the G77
For Pakistan, the key grouping at COP29 will be the G77. This comprises the largest bloc of developing countries (including China) that are UN members. Pakistani officials will again support the G77’s demand that the Global Goal on Adaptation actually meets the needs of developing countries, as laid out in their National Adaptation Plans.
The Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA) was established by the Paris Agreement in 2015. More specifically, it was established by Article 7 of the agreement, which is dedicated to climate change adaptation: “Enhancing adaptive capacity, strengthening resilience and reducing vulnerability to climate change in the context of the temperature goal of the Paris Agreement. It aims to significantly strengthen national adaptation efforts, including through support and international cooperation.”
The GGA triggered the Glasgow-Sharm el-Sheikh work programme, which gathered scientists, technology experts and reviewers to establish how best to achieve global climate change adaptation. This work programme started in 2021 and was concluded two years later, with the publication of the UAE Framework for Global Climate Resilience at COP28 in Dubai.
Multinational efforts to achieve the GGA’s vision continue.
In August 2023, Pakistan issued a comprehensive, well-structured and ambitious National Adaptation Plan. It aims to enhance resilience to the impacts of climate change across sectors, including the agricultural-water nexus, urban resilience, pollution control and disaster risk management. The plan envisages adaptation to climate change becoming integrated into national policies and development strategies. Enhanced collaboration among government bodies, the private sector and civil society will enable this integration.
The Loss and Damage Fund (LDF) was established during COP28, but it does not have a formal source of funding. Pakistan’s COP29 delegation will therefore seek G77 support for an agreement on ensuring regular replenishment of the LDF. Pakistani officials will also continue to stress the need for its fund-approval procedures to be simpler and more user-friendly.
Pakistani officials will back the common positions of developing nations, espoused by the G77’s negotiations. But they are also likely to lobby delegates of developed countries and multilateral institutions that have funding allocations for climate-related projects. These resources could be used to implement Pakistan’s National Adaptation Plan. They could also support initiatives such as Recharge Pakistan, and projects related to revitalising the Indus Basin, such as the Living Indus Initiative.
They will also remind their developed country partners of the aid pledges they made in the wake of the huge devastation caused by Pakistan’s country-wide floods in 2022, which were attributed to climate change impacts. As of March, only about 10% of these pledges had reportedly been honoured.
Finance will dominate COP29
Finance is expected to take centre stage at COP29 – the Baku summit is already being referred to as the “Finance COP”. This is partially because it will focus on the New Collective Quantified Goal on Climate Finance (NCQG).
A development of 2015’s Paris Agreement, the NCQG is intended to succeed an annual target of USD 100 billion in climate finance flows from developed countries to developing countries. That figure was established in 2009 and supposed to be met by 2020, but most analysis suggests only a limited amount of funding has actually been made available – despite claims to the contrary.
In the meanwhile, the latest research shows that somewhere in the region of USD 5-6.8 trillion will be needed to fund climate action in developing nations to 2030. Given the failure to meet the original USD 100 billion commitment, it is likely the NCQG negotiations will be hard and bitter.
At COP29, governments will also consider the second replenishment of the Green Climate Fund (GCF) and the broader challenge of reforming the International Financial Architecture, established at COP28. The latter primarily concerns the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund, and regional banks such as the Asian Development Bank and the New Development Bank (formerly the BRICS Development Bank); these institutions must work out how to realign their lending practices to reflect the global consensus on climate change.
So far, the lack of headway on these major financial questions has caused widespread consternation regarding the success of the Baku meeting.
Pakistani participants at COP29 – from both government and civil society – are likely to push for efforts to deal with the mounting adaptation burdens developing countries face. In particular, those relating to critical sectors such as securing fresh water, enhancing resilience in food and agricultural production, and precluding the adverse health effects of the climate crisis. In Baku, as at previous COPs, the growing gap between the needs of developing countries and the support available is likely to provoke acrimonious exchanges.
Nonetheless, there is also scope for cooperation, and assessments of initiatives that have worked (or at least been started) at COP28 and previous conferences. These include alliances for promoting the development of renewable energy, and sustainable agriculture and resilient food systems. Specific initiatives of interest to Pakistan are the likes of the Alliance of Champions for Food Systems Transformation, launched at COP28, Cities and Local Action to Combat Climate Change and measures to curb methane emissions. Many of these are public-private initiatives, and Baku will be an excellent opportunity to assess how well these have worked, and what lessons can be learned.
