On 24 September, President Xi Jinping announced China’s updated climate action targets. These include its first absolute emissions goal: by 2035, the country will cut net greenhouse gas emissions by 7-10% from peak levels.
Other targets include raising non-fossil fuel consumption to over 30% (the current goal is 25%) and expanding solar and wind capacity from 1.2 to 3.6 terawatts.
Simon Stiell, UN climate change executive secretary, called the announcement “a clear signal that the future global economy will run on clean energy.” However, many experts say the 7-10% target is too conservative. An assessment by the Centre for Research for Energy and Clean Air had found a 30% reduction would be necessary to align with the Paris Agreement goals on addressing global warming.
Juan Manuel Santos, former president of Colombia and chair of the Elders, a group of global leaders, said via the Global Strategic Communications Council (GSCC): “China’s latest climate target is too timid given the country’s extraordinary record on clean energy – both at home and through its green partnerships with emerging economies.”
The caution reflects China’s traditional approach to climate policy, stated Kate Logan and Li Shuo of the Asia Society, who called the outcome “a conservative pledge that the authorities are confident the country can fully deliver.” The pair noted the “uncertainty” of promising to cut emissions from undefined and undated “peak levels”.
“What’s hopeful is that the actual decarbonisation of China’s economy is likely to exceed its target on paper,” said Yao Zhe, global policy advisor at Greenpeace East Asia, via GSCC. A recent Greenpeace report projects that emissions from China’s largest sector – power generation – could peak by 2025. Though increased emissions from the coal-to-chemical sector complicate the picture, reports Climate Home News.
China’s energy transition is already reshaping its emissions trajectory. Robust growth in renewables drove a 1% year-on-year decline in CO2 emissions in the first half of 2025.
Muyi Yang, senior China analyst at Ember, said: “What matters now is preparing for the post-peak era so any plateau is short”. He said the new NDC “signals commitment, which will unlock capital and speed a shorter plateau and faster structural decline in emissions.”
Analysts say China’s upcoming five-year plans for 2026-2030 and 2031-35 could determine how these NDC pledges are translated into concrete action – including quantified reductions for CO2, methane and other gases.
Read Dialogue Earth’s recent piece on China’s plan to introduce absolute emissions caps for major industrial sectors by 2027.