During his first state visit as Indonesian president, Prabowo Subianto oversaw the signing of a USD 10 billion investment deal in Beijing last November. While the agreement spans sectors such as health, biotechnology, manufacturing, food security and finance, renewable energy is also slated to receive funding.
According to Indonesia’s Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (MEMR), part of this investment will support the development of hydropower and related green energy infrastructure.
“We value our relationship with China. We recognise China’s significant influence, not only in the economic sphere but also as a major global power,” Prabowo said in an official release from the Cabinet Secretariat.
China is Indonesia’s second-largest foreign investor after Singapore. In 2023, Chinese investment reached USD 7.4 billion, the highest in the ASEAN region. That year, Indonesia also became the largest recipient of Belt and Road Initiative investment, with major projects including the Jakarta-Bandung High-Speed Railway, industrial parks, and nickel-smelting facilities.
However, data from the Institute for Essential Service Reform (IESR) reveals a disparity in energy investments. Between 2006 and 2022, approximately USD 35 billion of Chinese investment flowed into Indonesia, but only a quarter targeted the energy sector. Critically, 86% of this energy investment focused on fossil fuels, leaving just 14% for renewables.
A report by the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA) highlights stagnation in Indonesia’s renewable energy sector investment for the past seven years. Only USD 1.5 billion of investment was attracted in 2023.
IPPs are required to invest capital but lack decision-making power over the business’s directionMutya Yustika, energy finance specialist at IEEFA
Key barriers to increasing renewable energy investment include the government’s mandatory partnership scheme, Mutya Yustika, an IEEFA energy finance specialist, told Dialogue Earth. This requires independent power producers (IPPs) to collaborate with subsidiaries of PLN, the state-owned electricity company, giving PLN majority control.
“This increases the risk for IPPs. They are required to invest capital but lack decision-making power over the business’s direction,” Mutya said.
Another deterrent is the low tariff offered – 9 cents per kilowatt-hour for solar projects – which makes renewables less financially attractive than fossil fuel alternatives. This pricing structure undermines the competitiveness of renewables and discourages private-sector investment.
A third obstacle is the protracted and often opaque procurement process. Mutya cited the Karangkates floating solar power plant in East Java as an example: “It took almost two years just to sign the letter of intent. Securing a power-purchase agreement will take even more time.”
These challenges have led the Indonesian government to revise its renewable energy targets downward, from a 23% renewable energy mix by 2030 to just 19%-21%. In 2023, renewables accounted for only 13.1% of the electricity mix, falling short of the government’s 17.9% target. Most renewable energy came from hydroelectric, biomass and geothermal sources.
Shuang Liu, China finance director at the World Resources Institutes (WRI), expressed concern about Indonesia’s lack of progress on its commitment to halt new coal power plants and transition significantly to renewables. Shuang emphasised that the government and other key stakeholders should direct resources “towards developing more bankable projects that international companies might consider”.
China’s investment boom
Chinese investment in Indonesia surged during Joko Widodo’s (Jokowi’s) presidency (2014-2024). During a bilateral visit to China in October 2023, Jokowi said: “In 2013, China ranked 12th in foreign direct investment contributor standings in Indonesia.” By 2022, it had jumped to second place.
According to official Chinese government statistics, Indonesia received USD 15.9 billion in Chinese investment between 2010-2020 – surpassing its neighbours Malaysia and Thailand, which each received just under USD 10 billion during the same period. While Indonesian sources put Chinese investment flows as high as USD 20 billion.
Economic ties between the two nations continue to strengthen, with China remaining Indonesia’s largest trading partner for over a decade. In 2023, imports from China reached USD 63 billion, accounting for 28% of Indonesia’s total imports.
However, Indonesia’s green energy expansion relies on coal-fired power, many financed by Chinese banks
Jokowi’s first official trip as president in 2014 was to China, coinciding with China’s push for infrastructure investments under the Belt and Road Initiative.
Indonesia sought to reduce its reliance on raw material exports by banning unprocessed mineral exports to attract higher-value-added industries. Jokowi built on his predecessor Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono’s 2010 regulation requiring mining companies to process and refine minerals before export. Indonesia leveraged this initiative to attract investments in industrial parks and mineral processing.
The Tsingshan Group, a globally leading stainless steel producer, played a key role in Indonesia’s nickel sector, establishing the Indonesia Morowali and Weda Bay industrial parks. In 2014, Tsingshan Group was the most prominent Chinese investor in the sector.
According to research by the Carnegie Endowment, battery-grade nickel produced in Indonesia supplies nine factories, accounting for over 40% of global production of electric vehicles, and placing Indonesia at the centre of new global supply chains supporting the renewable energy transition.
However, this industrial expansion relies on coal-fired power plants, some financed by Chinese institutions, including the China Development Bank, Export-Import Bank of China, Bank of China, and the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China.
Throughout his presidency, Jokowi secured investments in renewables, including electric batteries, hydropower and solar panels. “Indonesia has huge power in renewable energy potential. Whether it’s from hydropower, geothermal, wind, solar panels, biofuel, ocean currents, etcetera,” he said.
In 2019, China committed USD 27 billion to develop the Kayan Hydropower project, targeting a total capacity of 9 GW and completion in 2035. The project is touted as Southeast Asia’s largest, intended to meet the electricity demands of the planned new capital, Nusantara, and a green industrial park located nearby.
At the 2023 Indonesia-China Business Forum, Sinar Mas Group, in a joint venture with the national state agency, signed a deal with Chinese investors to construct Indonesia’s largest solar panel facility with an investment exceeding USD 100 million.
“The Chinese have strong interest in expanding investment in renewable energy across the region,” Christoph Nedopil Wang, director of the Griffith Asia Institute, told Dialogue Earth.
Nedopil Wang attributed this interest to several factors: China’s robust capacity to manufacture and install renewable energy equipment globally; a growing market driven by rapidly increasing electricity demand; and the potential for Chinese companies to export their renewable energy technology.
However, he acknowledged the limited scale of current renewable investments, referencing market dynamics and government regulations as key drivers. “It depends on the markets. The electricity market is heavily controlled by the government’s various interests,” he said. IPPs need a more balanced relationship with PLN, the state-owned electricity company, to ensure profitable investments for both parties, he added.
Challenges in renewable energy
Solar energy holds the greatest potential among Indonesia’s renewable energy sources. The MEMR estimates 3,200 GW of potential, yet only 200 MW had been utilised by 2023. Notable projects include the Cirata floating solar project, expected to generate 145 MW of capacity.
Despite these efforts, Indonesia lags other countries in Southeast Asia in renewable energy adoption. For example, Vietnam’s solar capacity reached 13 GW and wind power 6.5 GW in 2023, with an additional 1.1 GW added during the year.
At the G20 summit, President Prabowo announced plans to develop 75 GW of renewable energy capacity by 2040, leveraging geothermal, solar, wind and hydropower. However, PLN estimates USD 235 billion is needed to achieve this goal.
According to Fabby Tumiwa, IESR director, restrictive regulations hinder Indonesia’s solar potential, particularly the 60% domestic content requirement introduced in 2019. “To meet this requirement, Indonesia needs a domestic solar cell manufacturing industry,” Fabby said, noting that the country lacks tier-one solar module production, making projects difficult to finance.
Due to these challenges, the requirement was revised – first lowered to 40% in 2021, further reduced to 20% in August 2024 (effective until June 2025). Meanwhile, new local content rules for other renewables were also introduced, including 15% for wind.
Other challenges include the absence of renewable energy subsidies, prolonged procurement processes and inefficiencies in state electricity management. “There is a fundamental need to reform the management of the state electricity company and skilled and certified human resources in the solar sector,” Fabby told Dialogue Earth.
Mutya from the IEEFA underlined the importance of reforming procurement systems to attract investment and meet capacity targets.
Prabowo’s 75 GW renewable energy target aligns with Indonesia 2050’s net-zero emissions pledge but, according to the MEMR, achieving this could require as much as USD 1 trillion in investment.
