The issue of climate change, and Argentina’s commitments related to it, have seemed to sit uncomfortably with the government of far-right president Javier Milei since it entered office last December.
In the corridors of the building that housed the former environment ministry – downgraded to an under-secretariat by the new administration – even the word climate “change” appears to be taboo. “We use ‘impact’ or ‘management’,” Ana Vidal de Lamas, the under-secretary for the environment, tells Dialogue Earth.
Vidal de Lamas says that while climate change is “undeniable,” it is also “natural and cyclical” and “it has little to do with industrialisation and human beings” – despite the overwhelming scientific consensus on humanity’s impact. Dealing with its impacts, on the other hand, visible in areas across the country, from droughts to floods to heatwaves, will reportedly not be central to Milei’s agenda. “We are not going to be super proactive, but we will do what needs to be done,” she claims.
For some observers, the administration’s position on climate change has, however, verged on outright denial. “For the government, the denial of climate change never ends up being central, but they still play around the idea,” says Elisabeth Möhle, a climate policy researcher at the Fundar think-tank. Milei and his foreign minister Diana Mondino have repeatedly cast doubt on climate change, as well as questioning the UN’s 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development.
Such statements from officials have not only raised concerns over the direction of Argentina’s domestic environmental policy, but also over the impacts this may have on the international stage, and the country’s commitments to global climate action. “Any volatile government generates uncertainty, not only in the markets but also in multilateral, bilateral, international and regional organisations,” says Sandra Guzmán, founder of the Climate Finance Group for Latin America and the Caribbean (GFLAC). With the new administration, she adds, “the world’s players are waiting to see what is going to happen.”
Despite the discourse
Vidal de Lamas says that, at least for the time being, the direction of Argentina’s climate policy will be determined by the global agenda. She says that they are open to maintaining a similar line to the one that preceded them, but with some adjustments – including not promoting any policy associated with the 2030 Agenda.
However, the under-secretary of environment assured that Argentina will present the next update to its climate action plan under the 2015 Paris Agreement, known as a nationally determined contribution (NDC), which is due by February 2025. This will be Argentina’s third update to its NDC, with its second rated as “critically insufficient” by monitoring platform Climate Action Tracker.
If it does not follow through on its climate commitments, experts say the Milei government risks losing access to markets such as the European Union, which has introduced increasingly stringent environmental rules for its imports, as well as access to sources of funding from multilateral organisations.
“Externally, Argentina has everything to lose,” says Enrique Maurtua Konstantinidis, a senior climate policy consultant who has worked with local and international organisations. “It seems to me that being in the framework of the negotiations is a great benefit.”
Despite the doubts that have arisen given the new president’s statements, the consultant says that Argentina’s message to the world remains that it “will not break any agreement”.
While attending the UN COP28 climate summit in 2023, just days ahead of the Milei government’s inauguration, the country’s lead negotiator, Marcia Levaggi – now under-secretary for foreign policy of the foreign ministry – tried to allay fears of an exit from the Paris Agreement. During June’s inter-sessional negotiations in Bonn, Germany – a key climate meeting on the way to COP29 – Argentina was the lead representative of the G77 + China group of developing nations in discussions over climate finance. And so far, there is no indication of any intention of breaking off relations with Grupo Sur, a negotiating block which, in addition to including Uruguay and Paraguay, forces collaboration on climate change with Brazil, at a time of diplomatic tension.
According to Vidal de Lamas, the country’s course towards COP29 and COP30 in 2025 will be maintained on the same basis.
Implementation
Despite Argentina’s commitments, so far, the roadmap towards fulfilling them is unclear. The climate portfolio is currently divided between three ministries: the foreign ministry, the economy ministry, and the chief of cabinet. The prominent names on these issues are those of three women: Corina Lehmann, director for Environmental Affairs; Mariela Beljansky, under-secretary for energy planning and transition; and Vidal de Lamas.
Every Thursday, inter-ministerial meetings take place in which these three officials usually meet. They reportedly share their agendas on climate issues and give each other feedback, also inviting members of other portfolios to start integrating their initiatives on specific issues in a cross-cutting manner.
Even so, little is known today about how both the National Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation Plan and the 2030 plan for the energy transition will be implemented. Designed during the last government, the actions set out in these plans are central to Argentina’s attempts to meet international targets. Vidal de Lamas explains that, by law, these documents must be respected. “That does not detract from the fact that we will make adjustments according to the philosophy of this new government,” she adds.
The implementation of these plans has been a focus for both the National Climate Change Cabinet – a cross-ministry panel created in 2016 – and the External Advisory Council – set up in 2009 to enable civil society participation in climate issues – but there has also been no formal announcement over whether these bodies will continue to convene under the new administration. According to the government, this is due to a purely administrative issue that they expect to be resolved in the coming months. “Guillermo Francos [the current chief of cabinet] will convene it shortly,” Vidal de Lamas explains.
However, during the government’s bumpy first few months, environmental departments are said to have faced uncertainty amid the change of administration and structure, with dismissals and resignations also reportedly proliferating. Members and ex-members of the under-secretariat for the environment, who asked not to be identified, told Dialogue Earth that the overall feeling during the first months of Milei’s administration has been a lack of direction on the country’s climate policies.
Möhle stresses that the reduction of staff in technical work, both at home and in international negotiations, can lead to a bottleneck in management. Vidal de Lamas acknowledges that they are doing “the same work with fewer people” and that so far it has been difficult to “set out the lines” of this work. She attributes this to the process of intense restructuring of ministries launched by the government upon taking office, and sees as a turning point the so-called Ley de Bases, or “base law”, a controversial legislative package that lays out a wide-ranging deregulation of the state, which passed into law in early July.
“Now that it has been approved, it’s like the door has been opened. The things that were stuck are going to come out,” claims Vidal de Lamas. “I couldn’t talk about the work of a four-year under-secretariat when all the government’s actions were conditional on the approval of this law,” she adds.
Investments and environment
The Ley de Bases has faced criticism over the potential impacts it could bring for environmental protection in Argentina.
One of the main concerns of the environmental sector relates to the inclusion in the law of the Large Investment Incentive Scheme – RIGI, by its Spanish acronym. This measure will grant tax, customs and tariff exemptions, as well as possible fiscal stability promises for up to 30 years, for investments exceeding USD 200 million.
Preferential sectors under this scheme include forestry, tourism, infrastructure, mining, technology, steel, energy, oil and gas. But in addition to these incentives, some environmental organisations have also expressed fears regarding the deregulation of markets.
Vidal de Lamas explains that the regulation of natural resources is strictly the responsibility of Argentina’s provinces, who maintain ownership of them under the country’s constitution – for example, lithium in the country’s north, or vast oil and gas reserves in the province of Neuquén. However, she says the government will push for national-level legislation to set common standards on forestry, green hydrogen and mining. “Not for hydrocarbons,” she adds.
Although the environment under-secretariat is responsible for promoting the oversight of activities that have environmental impacts, previous statements have raised doubts over its potential performance in this regard. In an interview at the end of May, Vidal de Lamas said that “we will allow all offshore hydrocarbon projects”. She told Dialogue Earth that the body’s role is to handle environmental impact assessments.
“We are always a step ahead in asking for things [in evaluations], but we are not going to be a stumbling block,” says the under-secretary.
The national congress, meanwhile, is at a standstill on climate and environmental issues. In its lower chamber, a new Natural Resources and Human Environment committee has been formed, chaired by Milei’s La Libertad Avanza party, while in the senate, the previously existing Environment and Sustainable Development committee continues, now presided by the Cambio Federal opposition coalition. Since Milei took office, both committees have met only once.
Carlos D’Alessandro, chairman of the committee in the lower chamber and a lawmaker from Milei’s party, told Dialogue Earth that the delay has been because of the discussions of the Ley de Bases. “My two main objectives will be to pass a law on [plastic] packaging and a law on wetlands,” he says. When asked about climate policies, he says the committee will do their best to work on them, while adhering to his party’s positions on the issue.
Adaptation, mitigation and finance
The Milei government will be looking to Argentina’s provinces and industries to take the lead on climate change mitigation and adaptation policies, according to Vidal de Lamas. The government, she says, will act as an articulator and promoter of this, promoting measures that aim to encourage investment and hopefully lead, for example, to greater investment in projects that promote the energy transition.
The energy secretariat, the under-secretariat for the environment and the foreign ministry are said to be working in tandem to comply with international agreements in this regard. The government has said that it will move forward this year with a regulatory framework to support green hydrogen, and has also alluded in draft versions of the Ley de Bases to the creation of a market for carbon credits, with emissions quotas for different sectors of the economy. Vidal de Lamas told Dialogue Earth this still remains on their agenda.
The under-secretary for environment added that the government also plans to create a “methane roundtable” that would seek to discuss the mitigation of the potent greenhouse gas, convening sectors such as energy, industry and agriculture, along with the various provincial governments.
Who is going to want to finance a country that denies climate change?Cecilia Nicolini, former Argentine secretary for climate change
In terms of adaptation, Vidal de Lamas explains that the national government has met with all the provinces to learn about their respective plans for resilience and response to climate change. “We are going to establish priorities for projects in response to climate events based on the exchange of information,” she says. The under-secretary points out some pilot projects linked to adaptation are already underway, but that the government hopes that the provinces will be the ones to seek funding, implementation and expansion of these projects.
However, some observers express doubts over the feasibility of attracting funding for climate initiatives to the country, given some of the positions expressed by the government. Cecilia Nicolini, the secretary for climate change during the government of former president Alberto Fernández (2019-2023), argues that the arrival of a “denialist” president has come at “the worst time” for the country. “Who is going to want to finance a country that denies climate change?” she says.
Sandra Guzmán, however, rules out the possibility that Argentina may stop receiving funds for climate action, despite expectations from international organisations that the government may turn its sceptical words into concrete policies that delay or reverse the climate agenda. International funders, she says, “always hide behind the fact that they give money to countries, not to governments.”
