Snow equals water equals good crop… it’s a simple equation but one that is not working for farmers in Ghizer valley in Pakistan’s northern province of Gilgit-Baltistan. In a triple whammy, the snow this year has been hugely deficient, came later than usual and is fast melting, leading to worries about the harvest and their survival.
Ghizer and the adjoining valleys in Gilgit-Baltistan have received 70% less snowfall this year, estimate scientists at the Pakistan Meteorological Department. And even this came late. The area normally receives 90% of winter precipitation between November to January and the remaining during February. But this year snowfall season set in after mid-December.
Besides, the little snowfall that fell is melting faster and almost a month earlier than seen earlier.
The Ghizer river, the main tributary of the Indus, flows through the valley.
Ghulam Rasool, director general of the Pakistan Meteorological Department, who undertook a special visit to the glacier areas in the Upper Indus basin to assess the climatic situation, said the late winter snowfall will have profound implications on water resources and particularly impact farmers.
Attributing the situation to a change in the pattern of rains, he told thethirdpole.net over the phone: “This year the snowfall came in late March and even in April… and such snow melts in minutes and has no advantage in term of storage of water…”
According to him, the area also experienced a long and comparatively cold winter. “The change in the climatic conditions is a challenge for our wisdom and we have to change our lifestyle accordingly and adapt our agriculture to the changing weather pattern.”
The abrupt change in the weather pattern has led to near panic among the farmers – comprising 80% of the 200,000 population of Ghizer district which encompasses several mountain valleys – who depend entirely on glacial-fed mountain streams.
Jaffar Khan from Thoi village, in the extreme north of Ghizer valley, is one of those wondering how he will manage this year. “No snowfall means no irrigation water and no water means no crops in the entirely irrigation dependent areas,” Jaffar said as he watered his maize field.
According to farmers in the area, the snows started melting as March set in. In the past, the melt would begin mid or late April and provide water for summer crops like maize, potato and wheat for which sowing begins after March.
“Everyone is worried about the future of our crop if the snow melts quickly and there is no more water flow in the mountain streams in late May and June when summer crops like maize and potato as well as fruit orchards need rounds of watering,” added Azam Khan, a maize farmer in the village of Barkulti Yasin.
Farmers in the area, he said, grew only one crop due to the extreme weather. “If it gets damaged due to any reason, it means we don’t have the product for entire year,” he explained.
“Fresh snowfall is critical for mountain farming in valleys in the Upper Indus basin,” agreed Khan Aman, a farmer from Ishkoman valley located between the Hindukush and the Karakoram mountains.
The mountain valleys in the Upper Indus basin receive one to two feet snowfall normally in the low lying areas and more in high-altitude areas. “But this year we have received almost zero snowfall,” he said.
Several glacial-fed water springs that have flowed for centuries are drying up. With scarcely any snow recorded the entire winter, the situation is dire. This has depleted glaciers. The fast melting glaciers could also lead to floods.
Musa Khan, head of research at the met department’s Weather Observatory Station, said the deficient snow broke a 26-year record.
There’s a larger picture too. The problem of less snow has a cascading effect, impacting not just the high altitude areas. Heavy snowfall in the winters guarantees a prosperous summer for the rest of the country too as the rivers get flowing.