Political tension in West Africa puts vital climate action at risk

A wave of military coups in West Africa is reshaping political landscapes and jeopardising a unified response to climate change.

In January, relations within the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) broke down to the point where the junta-led nations of Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger announced they were leaving the regional bloc.

While they are yet to formally do so, the juntas’ trio of chiefs said in July they were “irrevocably” turning their backs on ECOWAS. In September, plans were announced for a new passport to make travel easier between the three countries.

ECOWAS is still hoping to negotiate their return, saying a split would risk regional disintegration and worsen security. It would also pose a serious threat to the bloc’s climate strategy. West Africa is already experiencing severe climate change impacts, including food insecurity and heatwaves.

One of the worst affected areas is the Sahel. Situated along the Sahara Desert’s southern border, the Sahel comprises six Francophone countries – Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, Mauritania, Niger and Senegal – and is home to more than 100 million people.

How is climate change affecting the Sahel?

Temperatures in the Sahel are rising 1.5 times faster than in the rest of the world and droughts are becoming more intense, according to a report by Solidarités International, a non-profit humanitarian agency. Climate change has also brought heavier rains. But with the land too dry to absorb the rainwater, there have been destructive river floods in Mali and Niger.

By 2050, climate change could plunge up to 13.5 million people in the Sahel into poverty and lead to the displacement of up to 32 million across West Africa, according to the World Bank.

Noudéhouénou Gandonou is a US-based climate finance and fragility expert who has researched climate impacts in the Sahel. He says changing rainfall patterns have led smallholder farmers relying on rainfed agriculture to change planting dates, diversify crops and plant drought-resistant varieties.

“However, these adaptations are not enough to counter the escalating severity and frequency of droughts, which have affected approximately 125 million people in the Sahel from 1970 to 2022 alone,” Gandonou tells Dialogue Earth. “The increasing unpredictability and severity of these conditions threaten the region’s livelihoods and food security, exacerbating existing socio-economic vulnerabilities.”

Conflict and climate change in the Sahel

Since 2020, West Africa (home to over 400 million people across 16 countries) has witnessed at least six successful military takeovers and numerous foiled attempts, plunging the region into political insecurity.

The Sahel region has been described as the “epicentre of terrorism”, and in 2022 accounted for 43% of global terrorism deaths. Since the 2000s, more than 2.5 million people have been displaced there, increasing the need for humanitarian interventions. This shift in priorities has made climate adaptation even more difficult.

“Because of climate change, land and water resources have become scarce, and as a result, people fight over these limited resources. That leads to insecurity and general instability,” says the Gambian political and security analyst, Essa Njie.

Njie adds: “Once these challenges are present, we risk having organised crime, competition over scarce resources, violent conflict and terrorist infiltration.”

The future of the bloc’s climate strategy

In 2022, ECOWAS agreed its first ever Regional Climate Strategy (RCS) to fulfil member countries’ obligations under the Paris Agreement.

The bloc’s representatives tell Dialogue Earth that the political instability will severely undermine the solidarity and coordination needed to implement this strategy successfully.

“Climate change is global, but actions are local. The [RCS] is a testament to this,” says a spokesperson for the office of the ECOWAS president, Omar Touray. “National actors, including public actors, civil society and the private sector become the key drivers of implementation. At political level, climate action will be pushed to the back burner, as the struggle for unity and survival of the community is paramount.

“Political instability will surely impact the scope of implementation of our climate strategy. For instance, the transboundary areas and water basins that need regional adaptation actions will not be easily accessible.”

ECOWAS has also made it clear that any country leaving the bloc will lose access to its projects. “The Regional Climate Centre may face some restrictions [in providing] forecast data and information to these Member States,” the spokesperson adds. “Consequently, they may not benefit from some of the best available practices and environmental technologies developed by the other countries and vice versa. This will create vulnerability when it comes to the climate security of the region as a whole.

“In addition, the capacity of the region to capture carbon emissions will be reduced,” the spokesperson says. “We are stronger together.”

Fatou Jeng, a climate change activist and founder of Clean Earth Gambia, says the political instability could shift priorities from climate adaptation to the military, stalling progress and diverting funds from climate projects.

“With some leaders not recognising the authority of ECOWAS, it also means them not accepting and endorsing the strategy, which will significantly impact coordinated responses to climate projects and actions,” she adds.

The ECOWAS strategy “includes low-cost adaptation measures in key sectors such as agriculture and water resources, supported by coordinated actions among governments, the private sector and global climate funds”, Gandonou tells Dialogue Earth.

Belélé Jérôme William Bationo, a climate change researcher from Burkina Faso, says his country lacks the means to implement policies and programmes itself. It would struggle to finance them, and lacks technical capacity, he says. 

Maïmouna Adamou, an activist and coordinator of Climate Clock in Benin (another ECOWAS state) stresses that peace and collaboration are essential in the fight against climate change, and fears for the region’s climate response.

“The split within ECOWAS could make matters worse, as coups d’état disrupt environmental policies and projects,” she says. “Climate projects can be delayed or cancelled, harming both governments and populations.”

Charting a way forward

ECOWAS is still hoping to rebuild relationships with Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger; sanctions aimed at restoring democratic rule in the nations have been lifted.

“Lifting those sanctions is meant to mitigate the situation and ensure that actions are taken by the commission to support its member states to fight climate change challenges under the implementation of the RCS,” its spokesperson says.

In May, the Africa Policy Research Institute published a report on climate change adaptation policies and strategies regarding Ghana, Nigeria and Senegal. It stressed the need for capacity building and knowledge sharing among West African countries to address the climate crisis.

“I firmly believe that collaboration and peace are essential in the fight against climate change,” says Maïmouna. “It is the reason we need ECOWAS to act as one force.”