Donald Trump’s re-election to the American Presidency has sent shockwaves around the world. Known for his unpredictable approach to policymaking and international relationships, the implications of his second term will be broad. Those implications could be particularly disruptive in the realm of climate action, where Trump expresses disdain and scepticism.
During his first term as President of the United States, Trump announced the country – which is the world’s largest historic and second-largest current emitter of greenhouse gases – would exit the Paris Agreement. Experts fear he will do the same again, massively undermining the framework for international cooperation on climate change. He is also famously pro-fossil fuels, at a time when emissions projections are already far off track from the Paris Agreement’s targets, and growing climate crises are devastating communities around the world, including in the US.
Dialogue Earth spoke to experts from China, India, Kenya, South Africa, Colombia and Mexico to hear their interpretations of what this historic election means for global climate action.
China: Yao Zhe
Global policy advisor, Greenpeace East Asia
Climate change does not care who is in the White House, and its impacts will continue to worsen. It is clearly in every country’s self-interest to take action on climate change to keep its people safe. The loss of US federal climate engagement is a major setback for global climate governance, but it is not the end of the road.
Once again, China finds itself at a pivotal moment. Expectations are high that China will join other key nations in reassuring the world that climate action will continue. China is in a unique position, not only because of the size of its carbon emissions, but also because of its strength in clean technology. In practical terms, a new NDC [Nationally Determined Contribution: a country’s emissions-reduction and climate-adaptation plan, required under the Paris Agreement] from China that outlines clear actions to transition away from fossil fuels will provide the world with the reassurance it needs.
Climate played a crucial role in stabilising US-China relations during the Biden era. The Trump administration may undo some of the climate diplomacy gains of recent years, but there is hope that US-China climate cooperation will continue at the subnational level and among non-state actors.
China: Dr Kevin Mo
Principal, Institute for Global Decarbonization Progress
There is no doubt that Trump’s victory will drastically reshape the global geopolitical landscape and climate agenda. In the short term, for example, it will be hugely challenging to deliver meaningful results on some of the COP29 scheduled topics, such as climate finance and Article 6, which concerns carbon markets. With the Biden administration becoming a lame duck, there will be increasing concerns about how much the US climate delegation can contribute to the negotiation and how much it can commit. In addition, whether their proposals will be taken seriously by other countries is a big question mark.
In January, when Trump takes office, he may withdraw from the Paris Agreement, lift Biden’s moratorium on natural gas export licensing, and even exit the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. The climate target set by the Biden administration to reduce emissions by 50-52% by 2030 may never be reached. In addition, even if Trump cannot repeal the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) as a whole, he will still be able to eliminate or delay implementation of some of the key climate provisions through executive and legislative actions.
US-China climate cooperation may scale back to the subnational level. The Trump administration is likely to impose additional restrictions or tariffs on China’s renewable energy products and technologies. Chinese solar companies already building plants in the US and expecting IRA subsidies may have more hurdles to overcome. However, barring sudden changes within the Republican Party, traditional energy trade between China and the US should be able to proceed.
India: Sanjay Vashist
Director, Climate Action Network South Asia
Technically speaking, the election of Donald Trump should not impact COP29 proceedings, as President Biden will still be in charge until January and still in a position to ensure a successful outcome on the new finance goal. However, Trump’s re-election cannot be an excuse for other nations to scale back ambition. The climate crisis is at our doorstep and working together is in every nation’s self-interest, including the US.
The US has always under-delivered on their climate finance pledges and it is certain that the Trump presidency will reduce that contribution to zero. But post-2025 climate finance does not depend on the US alone. Like in the past, we expect developed countries like Japan, Canada, the United Kingdom and others to step up and take the lead – remember, 200 countries carried on working together without the US during Trump’s first presidency.
Kenya: Mohamed Adow
Founder and director, Power Shift Africa
The climate crisis doesn’t stop because of one election result and the rest of the world isn’t going to let one country derail global progress in tackling it. The transition away from climate-wrecking dirty energy to clean renewables is more essential than ever.
It makes COP29 an even more important summit, as it will lay the financial groundwork for climate action in the coming years. Joe Biden remains US President for the next two months and his delegation needs to work with other countries to push for a strong outcome that will ensure the global momentum continues.
This moment is especially important for Africa, which has vast clean energy resources but needs the finance for renewable energy technology to harness it. It may become more challenging to access that funding if the US reverses its climate finance commitments, so African leaders will need to work harder, and as one, to push for what we in Africa are owed. The fact remains that Africans haven’t caused the climate crisis. The rest of the world needs to deliver the finance that can unlock Africa’s potential.
The benefits of clean energy and climate action are clear. It is now vital that a progressive coalition of countries, businesses, civil society groups and sub-national bodies step up to show they will not let this progress be stalled. The first opportunity to show this will be at COP29.
South Africa: Dr Enock Sithole
Executive director, Institute for Climate Change Communication
Donald Trump’s win sends shivers down the spines of all people who are involved in the struggle to reverse climate change, the world over. During his last presidency, Trump withdrew the US from the Paris Agreement, effectively denying all that it stands for. He also called the commitment for developed nations to raise USD 100 million per annum to help developing countries deal with the effects of climate change (agreed at COP15 in 2009) “extortion”. Unless he changes his rhetoric on climate change, Africa, in particular, should be very concerned.
That said, this means the continent has to mobilise its own resources to address climate change and not rely entirely on western countries, whose support has had many complications. I have advocated for African governments to tax windfall profits from fossil fuel companies and use the proceeds to finance climate change adaptation. I urge African countries to urgently consider this, since funding from the west is now seriously in doubt.
Latin America: Felipe Arango García
Executive director, Transforma
Alejandra López
Head of climate diplomacy, Transforma
Trump’s re-election represents several hurdles for global climate diplomacy, and directly affects Latin America. With his well-known climate scepticism and focus on fossil fuels, Trump could again abandon the Paris Agreement, destabilise the international cooperation system and limit climate finance options for Latin America. In addition, executive power would allow Trump to redirect funds initially intended to implement the Inflation Reduction Act, which is focused on emissions reductions, and hinder tax incentives for renewable energy deployment.
Trump’s “fracking and drilling” energy policy not only locks his own country into fossil technologies, but will attempt to drag Latin America down the same path, slowing energy and economic decarbonisation in the region.
However, the United States of 2024 is a far cry from the United States of 2016 in terms of investment in renewable energy, and the maturity of these technologies. Renewables already provide significant profit for the private sector and a source of jobs for thousands of Republican voters in Texas and other states – who will demand more political pragmatism from Trump when it comes to renewable energy’s place in the economy.
We call for clear leadership from other actors, such as the European Union, Canada and the rest of the developed world, as well as various emerging actors in the developing world, such as China, Brazil, India and Mexico, to advance mitigation and adaptation goals, and to redouble efforts to support the multilateral system. COP29 will be a crucial point to measure the commitment of these countries to fill the gap left by the US and support Latin America’s climate needs.
