It should have been a cheerful spring with India’s Kashmir Valley opening its doors to visitors after a long, harsh winter. Instead, the famed land of mountains and meadows went into weather shock this March with torrential rain and heavy snow leading to widespread destruction and forcing a virtual shutdown of the valley.
Snow up to several feet deep descended on most of the valley in the first two weeks of March, whipping up blizzards and triggering avalanches on the steeper mountain slopes. With at least 17 deaths reported, around 2,000 homes damaged, roads blocked and electricity disrupted in many parts of the state, authorities struggled to rescue people in snowbound areas and restore essential services.
The damage to agricultural and horticultural property would run into millions of dollars, officials said. The airport in the Jammu and Kashmir summer capital Srinagar had to be closed and key highways were blocked.
The Himalayan state of Jammu and Kashmir receives 30% of its annual rainfall in the winter. The average rainfall, calculated over the winters of 1951 to 2000, is 183 millimetres (mm). This year, the Indian Meteorological Department forecast that Jammu and Kashmir would see below average rainfall for the months of January through March. And then, between March 1-12, the state received 122 mm of rain, far higher than the normal 56 mm.
“If you really look into the curve of snow cover, there is always a sudden peak in snow cover in the month of March,” said Anil Kulkarni, glaciologist at the Indian Institute of Science’s Divecha Centre for Climate Change. “It is more part of the climate variability,” he told thethirpole.net.
Several studies indicate that most parts of the Himalayas are getting warmer at a rate faster than the average warming of the earth. Patterns of rain and snow vary throughout the mountains as weather is controlled by dramatic changes in topography and the presence of distinct microclimates in many parts.
The fifth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) cites a study that indicates less snowfall with rising temperatures in the western Himalayas. Predictions for rainfall by the end of the century vary from a decrease of 20% in Pakistan, southern and eastern Tibet and the central Himalayas to an increase of 30% in the western Himalaya and Kunlun Shah range.
The World Meteorological Organisation’s annual climate report published this week said that “13 of the 14 warmest years” in recorded history fell in the current century. 2013 was the sixth warmest year on record, said the report, indicating a long-term global warming trend.
Kashmir’s weather shock could have been caused by one of several atmospheric phenomena. Winter rain and snow in the Himalayas is brought by western disturbances, cyclonic circulations that develop over the Mediterranean Sea and move east into north India. Once it hits the Pir Panjal range, the westerly winds get deflected in two directions, explained A.L. Ramanathan, professor at New Delhi’s Jawaharlal Nehru University School of Environmental Sciences. One stream blows along the Karakoram mountains towards Ladakh. The other flows south of the Karakoram and into Kashmir.
According to Ramanathan, the excessive snow in Kashmir could have been caused by the westerlies not having enough momentum to make the journey into Ladakh but getting concentrated as one stream into Kashmir.
Another possibility, he added, was the influence by winds from the Arabian Sea. At the end of winter, the westerly winds, which should normally be weakening, are sometimes reinforced by moisture-bearing winds from the Arabian Sea. As these winds climb the Himalayas, the moisture can be deposited as intense snowfall in the lower regions of Kashmir.
Govindswamy Bala of the Divecha Centre for Climate Change says the current weather in Kashmir could fall within the normal climate variability of the region. He, however, does not discount the influence of climate change in a warming Himalaya on rain and snowfall.
“Warmer atmosphere can hold more water vapour. Even just pure thermodynamics will tell you that the water vapour content of the atmosphere will increase by 7% for every degree of temperature change. This is a very well known fact. So, the amount of water contained in the atmosphere is more. So when we get a rainfall event or a snowfall event, the quantity is going to be more,” said Bala.
A meteorological department official in Srinagar added that the pattern of rainfall and snowfall was erratic while insufficient precipitation also leaves farmers and others worried.
Farmers from southern parts of Kashmir reported that more than 80% of almond crop this year had suffered heavy losses due to the damage caused to almond blossoms.
Apple growers in the apple rich belts of Shopian and Sopore said that thousands of apple trees had crumbled under the heavy snow, thus ending any hopes of a good crop.
“Around 15% of the apple trees have suffered damage due to the heavy snowfall,” Amin Mir, president of the Kashmir Fruit Growers’ Association, told thethirdpole.net.
Several parts of India were witness to weather surprises over the last year — the cloudburst causing the devastating Uttarakhand flood in which hundreds of lives were lost being just one of them. According to Bala, while no one weather event can be pinned down to climate change yet, it could be if the pattern repeats often in coming years.
Climate change also magnifies intense weather making it more destructive. “When weather conditions are leading to a very heavy event, even a 10% boost of that because of climate change could be extremely damaging and could lead to a disaster,” he said.