China is set to lead global electrolyser installations with nearly 70% of projected capacity this year, according to the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) Global Hydrogen Review 2024.
Electrolysers, which use electricity to split water into hydrogen and oxygen, are a critical technology for producing low-emissions, or “green” hydrogen, from renewable or nuclear electricity.
By the end of 2023, installed electrolyser capacity reached 1.4 GW globally, with projections indicating it could rise to 5 GW by the end of 2024, primarily driven by projects in China, the report notes.
Despite global hydrogen demand reaching 97 million tonnes in 2023, green hydrogen production remains below 1 million tonnes, with most of the demand still being met by “grey” hydrogen produced from fossil fuels. In China, green hydrogen similarly accounts for just 1% of total hydrogen production.
According to the IEA report, 60% of the world’s electrolyser manufacturing capacity is currently located in the country. With expanding production capabilities, costs for electrolysers are expected to decrease further, following a similar trend observed in the solar photovoltaic and battery industries.
As local governments announce ambitious plans, China’s hydrogen sector is anticipated to grow rapidly. However, slow infrastructure development and weak consumption demand could pose risks of overcapacity, the South China Morning Post noted last year.
This trend also extends to the export sector. In late August, China Daily reported that Chinese hydrogen electrolyser exports have been experiencing an unprecedented surge due to growing demand for sustainable solutions in Europe and the Middle East. However, in September, the European Union announced that it will take steps to exclude Chinese-manufactured electrolysers from an upcoming auction in a bid to reduce competition.
“The development of China’s hydrogen industry is unbalanced”, said Guo Jianzeng, a director of the 718th Institute of the China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation, its research-focused arm. He added that the bottleneck in hydrogen storage and transportation has not been paid enough attention, while investment in areas such as electrolysis and hydrogen fuel cells is currently overheated.
Some in the industry have sought to assuage these concerns. They say that the “capacity” in “overcapacity” refers to the planned capacity and not actual output, and that whether the capacity will be implemented remains uncertain.
“Due to the complexity and bespoke nature of electrolyser equipment, manufacturers do not choose to produce more products for inventory,” noted a Chinese hydrogen company chief. “They will only produce when there are orders.”
Read Dialogue Earth’s previous report on whether by-product hydrogen can be a bridge to a green hydrogen economy in China.