China’s first Biennial Transparency Report on Climate Change was released last week, in which the country confirmed it has yet to peak its carbon emissions.
The report, which has been submitted to the Secretariat of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, discloses China’s greenhouse gas inventory in 2020 and 2021. It showed that total greenhouse gas emissions in 2021, including that from land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF), reached 13 billion tonnes, an increase of 4.3% on 2020 levels. Of this, carbon dioxide emissions accounted for 10.28 billion tonnes, or 79.1%, and methane accounted for 13.1%.
In 2020, China officially announced its dual carbon goals to peak carbon emissions before 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality before 2060. However, the scope of emissions that count toward carbon peaking had not been clarified until the publication of this report. It reveals that the target encompasses all carbon dioxide emissions from fuel combustion in the energy sector and industrial processes and product use (IPPU).
Analysis of the report by Global Net-Zero, an energy channel on WeChat, showed that from 2024 to 2060, China will require more than CNY 268.2 trillion (USD 36.6 trillion) to meet its target of achieving carbon neutrality. It noted that greenhouse gas emissions from energy activities account for the vast majority of emissions at about 11 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent, while that from IPPU use constitutes 2.14 billion tonnes. Together, they account for over 90% of all greenhouse gas emissions in the country.
China’s greenhouse gas inventory from 2021 shows that carbon dioxide emissions from fuel combustion and IPPU totalled 11.62 billion tonnes, the report notes. It also states that carbon dioxide emissions from fuel combustion and IPPU has not yet peaked.
Experts had been looking forward to China peak carbon emissions early. In May 2024, Lauri Myllyvirta, lead analyst at the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, noted that if China’s clean energy development activity is sustained at the “record levels” seen in 2023, the country will have reached its carbon peak that year.
Read Dialogue Earth’s previous analysis on how China can peak its emissions.
Correction notice: The original version of this article stated that China had committed to peaking its carbon emissions by 2030 and reaching carbon neutrality by 2060. On 21 January 2025, this was corrected to before 2030 and before 2060.