China’s solar industry continues to face serious price and competition issues, with over 30% of listed solar companies reporting losses. “The industry is bleeding, with razor-thin profit margins,” said China Photovoltaic Industry Association (CPIA) Chairperson Cao Renxian at the 2024 Annual Solar Industry Conference, held on 5 December in Yibin, Sichuan province.
In the first three quarters of 2024, 39 of China’s 121 listed solar companies reported net losses. Among the top 15 firms, 12 recorded negative profits, with 11 experiencing profit declines exceeding 100%, said CPIA Honorary Chairperson Wang Bohua.
Prices in the solar supply chain have also plummeted. From January to October 2024, polysilicon prices have dropped by over 35%, wafers by more than 45%, and cells and modules by over 25%, Wang noted.
The growth of solar production in China has been slowing. Also in the first ten months of 2024, production of polysilicon, wafers, cells and modules increased by over 20% year-on-year, a far cry from the 72-86% growth seen in the same period last year.
However, the steep price drops have led to intensified competition. Zhong Baoshen, chairperson of Longi Green Energy Technology, said that the excessive competition has led to oversaturation and subpar products. He added that government support has created too many small players, leading to the dispersal of resources, and argued for consolidation and mergers as “fundamental solutions”.
Uncertainties in the international market add to these challenges. New restrictions on Chinese solar products in the US, Europe, and India, along with expanded US tariffs targeting Southeast Asia, could affect Chinese companies’ regional production capacity.
Despite these headwinds, projections for long-term domestic and global demand for low-carbon technologies remain strong. China continues to maintain ambitious renewable energy goals, aiming to reach 1,200 GW of solar and wind capacity by 2025. This means it will achieve its 2030 target ahead of schedule, according to Global Energy Monitor. The International Energy Agency predicts that wind and solar could supply 30% of global electricity by 2030, up from 12% in 2023.
Read Dialogue Earth’s previous analysis of what China’s green “overcapacity” could mean for the Global South.