From 2026, China will shift away from controlling energy consumption and towards controlling carbon emissions, according to a work plan released by the State Council on 2 August.
The plan states that from 2026 to 2030 China will focus on reducing carbon emission intensity – emissions per unit of GDP – while also controlling total emissions. After reaching peak emissions in 2030, total emissions control will be prioritised, with intensity control playing a secondary role.
The current system focuses on controlling total energy consumption and energy consumption intensity. From 2012 to 2021, China’s energy consumption per unit of GDP decreased by 26.4%, with an average annual decline of 3.3%.
But energy-consumption control has its limitations. It has led some manufacturers to experience power restrictions even if they use clean energy, going against government efforts to support renewable energy, explained Wang Weiquan of the China Energy Research Society. The new approach should help address the energy constraints faced by certain companies and regions, added Wang.
Supporting the new “dual-control” system will require China to improve its emissions data management, according to Xinhua. Current technology for online CO2 monitoring is insufficient for comprehensive data collection, and China will focus on improving statistical methods for carbon accounting, Xinhua added.
Lin Boqiang, president of Xiamen University’s China Energy Policy Research Institute, highlighted another challenge ahead: “The biggest hurdle will be balancing national targets with local realities.”
China’s regions have differing energy profiles. The south-west relies on hydropower, the north-west on wind and solar power, and coal-producing areas on fossil fuels. “This issue involves local economic development and will require a comprehensive national strategy. There may be some negotiation between central and local authorities, but the overarching trend will be towards cleaner development,” said Lin.
Read Dialogue Earth’s analysis of the 2024 Two Sessions, which put energy intensity in focus.