Could the end of UK coal inspire a faster global phase-out?

The UK closed its last coal power plant on 30 September, ending the use of coal for electricity in the country that built the world’s first such power station in 1882.

It’s a milestone in the country’s efforts to slow climate change, and a stark difference from just a year ago, when then-Prime Minister Rishi Sunak announced a rollback of net-zero policies, drawing criticism from climate experts.

At last year’s UN climate conference in Dubai, governments agreed to “transition away from fossil fuels”. But examples of successful transitions are in short supply. Could the UK’s historic achievement inject fresh momentum into the global campaign to phase out coal for good?

Coal phase-out

To have a chance of limiting global heating to the safe limit of a 1.5C rise, coal-fired power generation must end by 2040, according to the International Energy Agency.

Yet in 2023, power companies burned more coal than ever before and the total capacity of coal-fired power stations globally reached 2,130 gigawatts (GW), up 2% on the previous year and the highest growth since 2016, according to Global Energy Monitor.

The growth of coal is not spread evenly across the globe. China accounted for two-thirds of last year’s added capacity. China and India are responsible for 82% of planned new coal power projects.

Nevertheless, many countries are taking steps toward a coal phase-out. Of the 75 nations still producing coal power, 33 have set target dates to stop – mostly by 2035.

Reliance on coal is “rapidly coming to a close” across the 38 OECD countries, according to a September report by energy think-tank Ember. Coal generation in these nations has fallen 52% since peaking in 2007, with 14 nations already coal-free and 13 more committed to phasing out by 2030.

“Countries that have historically had a lot of coal plants [and] emitted a lot of carbon into the atmosphere really should be planning for phase-outs quickly” says Christine Shearer, who manages Global Energy Monitor’s coal plant tracker.

“It’s just not happening fast enough.”

Lessons from the UK

In April, G7 countries pledged to shut down all “unabated” coal-fired power by 2035. The UK is the first member of the group, comprising wealthy countries with some of the highest historical emissions, to fulfil that promise.

The UK’s coal history is complex. In the 1980s, Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher forced the closure of 20 coal mines, triggering a bitter, year-long strike. Tens of thousands of miners lost their jobs. By contrast, all 154 workers at the now-closed Ratcliffe-on-Soar power station were successfully redeployed.

Coal power went from supplying 39% of the country’s electricity 12 years ago to zero today.

“It’s now demonstrated that it’s possible to deliver a transition much faster than anyone thought,” says Julia Skorupska, head of the secretariat of the Powering Past Coal Alliance, a coalition of countries, businesses and financial institutions.

“We now have a good body of learning about what works, what are some of the key policy lessons,” says Skorupska, most important of which is “setting a phase out date early” and sticking to it. This gave UK businesses confidence to invest in renewable energy and trade unions time to re-skill and redeploy workers, she explains.

The UK’s experience also disproves some of the fears stoked about moving to clean energy. “Critics said, ‘if the UK phases out coal power, the lights are going to go out.’ It shows that hasn’t been the case,” says Shearer.

A chance for leadership

“It’s an opportunity for leadership if the UK is interested,” says Janet Milongo, energy transition senior manager at Climate Action Network International, based in Kenya.

The timing of the UK closing its last coal plant is an opportunity, she argues, to influence the agenda at the upcoming autumn and winter meetings where governments and heads of state will discuss cooperation on climate policy.

From 11-22 November, representatives from UN countries will converge at this year’s COP29 climate change conference in Baku, Azerbaijan. Around the same time, leaders of G20 countries will attend an annual summit in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.

February 2025 is the deadline for parties to the Paris climate agreement to submit updated emission-reduction plans, known as Nationally Determined Contributions or NDCs.

“All of these are avenues that countries can put forward ambitious targets,” says Milongo. “The UK example [shows] it’s actually important to have legally binding and measurable targets. They do foster implementation.”

But to support poorer countries, she says the UK’s main role should be “providing the necessary public grant-based finance that is being called upon.”

Supporting a just transition

In 2021, the UK initiated the Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP) model, through which G7 countries promised billions to assist coal-dependent countries, including South Africa, Indonesia and Vietnam, to make the socially difficult shift to clean energy.

Three years on, progress has been slow, as countries struggle to work out how to distribute the funds and on what terms.

A key goal of Indonesia’s JETP is early retirement of coal power stations, but the government missed the July deadline to agree a deal for the first early closure of the Cirebon-1 coal plant.

One dynamic affecting the partnership is “an awareness that many industrialised countries are still expanding their fossil fuel production”, says Tiza Mafira, Indonesia director at the Climate Policy Initiative and adviser to the country’s JETP secretariat. In that context, the UK’s phase-out is “a big deal”, adds Mafira. “They’re not just talking, but they’re doing what they say should happen.”

Nonetheless, JETP countries face more practical challenges to ending their reliance on coal, such as costs, accurately predicting energy demand, and making sure the grid can manage a growing proportion of renewable energy.

“It’s a good gesture,” says Mafira. “That’s not to say that immediately everybody in Indonesia wants to close their coal plants.”

Mafira also raises concerns about the social costs of the energy transition and coal closures. Indonesia’s JETP doesn’t allocate funds to manage these: “If this is all just investment money and there’s no money left to manage the social dynamics of this transition, then how are we going to achieve what you guys achieved?”