Is ‘king coal’ back in South Africa?

“If you want coal, we will give you coal,” South Africa’s minister of mineral resources and energy said in February. “King coal is back.”

Gwede Mantashe was speaking in Cape Town at the Africa Mining Indaba, an annual conference to attract investment. He was responding to the recent growth of South Africa’s coal sector. In 2023, coal production grew by 0.7% and in 2024 it grew an estimated 0.8%, according to the International Energy Agency.

Mantashe’s words signal potential resistance to South Africa’s transition towards clean energy; wind and solar produced 12% of the country’s power in 2023, up from just 2% in 2015. And it comes as South Africa prepares to host the G20 in November.

Two months before the remarks, environmental activists had gathered in jubilation outside the Pretoria High Court. A landmark ruling in December had declared unconstitutional South Africa’s plan to build 1,500 megawatts (MW) of new coal-fired power by 2027. The court ruled that the government had failed to properly consult stakeholders and assess the serious health and environmental risks of coal power. The decision was seen as a turning point towards renewables for a country that still relies on coal for 83% of its energy.

Brandon Abdinor is an attorney at the Centre for Environmental Rights (CER), a non-profit that led the charge against the procurement of the new coal power. He told Dialogue Earth the court’s decision indicated that “technical considerations often put forward by the state – like enabling the grid to be stable and its integrity to be sustained – do not constitute sufficient reason to limit fundamental rights”.

However, could the minister’s comments signal an intent to challenge this, and do they raise questions about the future direction of South Africa’s energy sector?

According to experts consulted by Dialogue Earth, though much more needs to be done to ensure a just transition, and though coal will remain part of the energy mix for many years, South Africa can still achieve its 2050 net zero target.

‘Cancel coal’

The high court case, referred to as ‘Cancel Coal,’ challenged the government’s decision to expand coal-fired power as part of its 2019 Integrated Resource Plan, which proposed adding 750MW by 2023 and another 750MW by 2027.

The case had been brought in 2021 by African Climate Alliance (ACA), Vukani Environmental Justice Movement, Groundwork Trust and CER.

They argued that the decision violated Sections 24 and 28 of South Africa’s constitution – the right to a healthy environment and the rights of children, respectively. A 2017 report had found that, annually, coal-fired power stations cause over 2,200 deaths in South Africa and cost the nation USD 2.4 billion (ZAR 30 billion) in healthcare and lost workdays.

The Pretoria court found that the government had “flouted their constitutional obligations towards children” by disregarding the health and environmental impacts of expanding coal power. It therefore declared “unlawful and invalid” the inclusion of the 1,500MW of coal power in the 2019 plan.

Sibusiso Mazomba, Cancel Coal campaigner at the ACA, explained that the judgment mandates the protection of the environment for the benefit of both present and future generations. “Moving forward, children – who will bear the brunt of decisions that exacerbate climate change – must now be consulted and actively involved in government decision-making that affects their future,” he said.

Space to expand coal?

However, energy expert Chris Yelland clarified that the ruling does not ban coal outright. He explained that the Department of Mineral Resources and Energy will need to strike a balance between energy needs and legal obligations.

“The government can still add new coal power, but only if it meets the necessary legal and environmental requirements,” he said.

“I can’t guarantee a new power station tomorrow,” Mantashe said at a media briefing during the Cape Town mining conference, “but global developments suggest we could build one.” He then mentioned South Africa’s experience with carbon capture, utilisation and storage (CCUS) as a way to reduce the climate-warming impact of coal power stations. He highlighted a pilot site in Mpumalanga with a borehole capable of storing 34 gigatonnes of CO2. However, he acknowledged the uncertainty of the policy landscape. “Whether we will build a coal power station, I don’t know,” he said.

CER attorney Abdinor argues that a full assessment would show new coal is too harmful and not a viable option. Cancel Coal campaigner Mazomba advocates for renewables like solar, hydro and wind, noting that G20 peers such as India, China, Brazil and Turkey have outpaced South Africa in renewable-energy adoption.

Social and economic challenges

A key concern for the government is the sluggish progress of South Africa’s Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP). The initiative was launched in 2021 with an initial pledge from international partners to mobilise USD 8.5 billion between 2023 and 2027. Despite this, only USD 2.5 billion of the pledge has been spent to date. South Africa’s Just Energy Transition Investment Plan states that approximately USD 98 billion would be needed between 2023 and 2027 to fund its long-term decarbonisation.

A lack of skills remains a significant hurdle in South Africa’s shift to a low-carbon economy. Blessing Manele, spokesperson for the Presidential Climate Commission (PCC), warns that there is no clear understanding of how this transition will impact jobs or what specific skills the future workforce will need.

The need for clarity on this is “made more urgent by the fact that transition planning is developing in the context of already high unemployment, poverty and inequality,” he told Dialogue Earth.

“These dynamics make South Africa’s skills diversification more complex as the just transition ought to manage job losses and create employment opportunities in a country with an unemployment rate of 31.9%.”

Coal is the country’s second-largest mining employer after platinum group metals, directly employing over 100,000 people. At the mining conference, Mantashe also argued that coal should be classified as a “critical mineral”, not only for energy security but also for employment stability.    

However, green industrialisation presents diverse job opportunities across multiple sectors in South Africa, according to energy expert Nick Hedley. Reflecting on the loss of jobs in areas like coal transport, he said: “The transition will create employment in the transportation of low-carbon goods and the production of sustainable materials like low-carbon steel, iron, cement, glass, chemicals, and fertilisers.”

Hedley said many coal workers in Mpumalanga province, the country’s coal heartland, could transition into renewable energy roles, but added that additional job opportunities in agriculture and tourism will also be needed. “The three coastal provinces, with the best wind and solar resources, offer the greatest potential for new industrial hubs, ensuring South Africa’s reindustrialisation through cleaner and more competitive manufacturing processes,” he said.

The Cancel Coal judgment has also reignited debates over the legacy of the 1948-1994 apartheid on land ownership in South Africa. Renewables projects benefit landowners who can use their land to generate electricity or rent it generation companies, says Letitia Jentel, a researcher at the South African Institute for International Affairs (SAIIA). This “perpetuate[s] energy inequality, favouring a select few in government and the private sector … rather than promoting energy democracy,” she told Dialogue Earth. Jentel advocates for a “wellbeing economy” that redistributes land and supports community-owned energy projects.

Geopolitical crossfire

While on the one hand, Western countries have supported South Africa’s transition away from coal, most tangibly via the JETP, new tensions with the US present significant headwinds. In February, Secretary of State Marco Rubio boycotted the G20 Foreign Ministers’ meeting, claiming South Africa was using the event to promote “solidarity, equality, and sustainability.” President Cyril Ramaphosa downplayed concerns, saying it was “not a train smash” since a US representative still attended.

In March, the US Embassy in South Africa informed the South African government of a 28 February executive order from President Trump formally withdrawing the US from the JETP. The US had pledged USD 56 million in grants and USD 1 billion in potential commercial investments. Its withdrawal reduces the total JETP pledges to South Africa from USD 13.8 billion to USD 12.8 billion.

Despite this, “South Africa remains steadfast in its commitment to achieving a just and equitable energy transition,” said Joanne Yawitch, head of the presidency’s JET Project Management Unit, in a statement. Yawitch said all other JETP partners “remain firmly committed” while the unit is “actively engaging with other grant-making organisations to source alternative funding”.

Political analyst Ongama Mtimka maintains that coal will remain a key part of South Africa’s energy mix. “What was once a dominant push for decarbonisation now faces an existential threat from the Trump administration,” he said, adding that this “could allow Global South nations like South Africa some room to prolong the lifespan of coal”.

To Abdinor, the CER attorney, this is an injustice.

“To those authorities, and the corporates who profit from it in the short term, coal has remained king,” he said. “[But] to put people first and champion the transition away from coal mining, they need only apply our existing laws.”