The man who will become the 47th President of the United States this month has some strong views on the ocean.
He has claimed that rising sea levels will create “more oceanfront property”, that offshore wind farms are an ugly blight, and that Californian water shortages are because of efforts to protect “essentially worthless fish”.
Donald Trump’s opinions will again shape the world when he returns to the White House on 20 January. Some scientists and campaigners are deeply worried about what this means for the ocean.
“We’re definitely going to be having to play a lot of defence over the next four years, trying to protect the laws that we already have,” says John Hocevar, oceans campaign director for Greenpeace USA.
I’d be very surprised if the Trump administration had an ocean strategyJohn Hocevar, oceans campaign director for Greenpeace USA
Trump has a history of downplaying the potential damage of climate change, and sometimes questioning its reality. This has huge implications for faltering global progress on lowering greenhouse gas emissions and cushioning the damage they are already doing. Global warming is a major disruptor of the ocean. Record high temperatures are already causing mass bleaching of coral reefs, loss of sea ice, the environmental and economic perils of ocean acidification and other impacts. The US is Earth’s second-largest greenhouse gas polluter, so its government’s disinclination to mitigate climate change is dire news for the ocean – on a global scale.
A coherent approach from Trump to the ocean itself is harder to discern, however.
“I’d be very surprised if the Trump administration had an ocean strategy,” says Hocevar. “It seems much more likely that they’ll have a careening, ideologically led, pro-business approach that will have erratic and inconsistent impacts on everything else.”
Trump’s ocean record
During Trump’s first presidency from 2017 to 2021, the Republican rescinded the National Oceans Policy that was set in place by his Democrat predecessor, Barack Obama. This drew ire from some experts who said the move prioritised economic use of the sea over conservation. Last year, research analysing the ocean policies of the two presidents’ administrations noted that Trump eliminated seven “key federal entities” established by Obama. Trump instead focused on “economic growth, energy production, and national security”.
In 2017, Trump’s proclamation for National Ocean Month chose to recognise “the importance of harnessing the seas for our national security and prosperity”. His second term is likely to have a similar focus. Trump says he will reverse a ban on new oil and gas leases just brought in by outgoing President Joe Biden, which applies to a huge swathe of US waters. Meanwhile some fishers have welcomed Trump’s return, saying they expect he will allow them to again fish in protected areas.
Patrick Christie, who studies marine policy at the University of Washington’s Jackson School of International Studies, says: “I think it’s really clear that under a Trump administration there’s going to be an increased push for privatisation of ocean spaces. Environmental NGOs are going to be forced to work more closely with private-sector interests, particularly in areas around renewable energy, around offshore, high seas, etc.”
Among Trump’s ocean priorities is the importance of beautiful views, and how offshore wind farms ruin them. In an interview shortly before the election in November, he said there is “nothing uglier”, and he had already pledged to ban new offshore wind projects.
Christie observes that the United States’ stance on renewable energy has shifted since 2017, when Trump first assumed the presidency. These technologies now provide major private-sector income and jobs, many of which are concentrated in Republican strongholds like Texas. Those people are likely to “demand more political pragmatism from Trump when it comes to renewable energy’s place in the economy”, predicts Christie.
‘Dismantling climate change alarm’
Trump has also suggested offshore wind is killing whales. During an interview with the podcaster Joe Rogan, he said: “I wanna be a whale psychiatrist … [offshore wind turbines] drives the whales friggin’ crazy.”
The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (Noaa) has stated there are “no known links between large whale deaths and ongoing offshore wind activities”. Ship strikes are the major cause of unnatural whale deaths around North America, especially the endangered North Atlantic right whale, according to leading scientists.
Trump is unlikely to pay much attention to Noaa, though. One major fear among ocean researchers is that his administration will destroy this agency, which employs thousands of scientists and collects data vital to understanding weather, fisheries and climate.
The Republican-orientated Project 2025 manifesto, which outlines policy options for Trump, says Noaa “should be dismantled and many of its functions eliminated, sent to other agencies, privatized, or placed under the control of states and territories”. The manifesto was written by Thomas Gilman, who served the first Trump administration in Noaa’s parent department, the Department of Commerce. Project 2025 also describes Noaa and its constituent offices as “one of the main drivers of the climate change alarm industry”.
Project 2025 is linked with many Trump supporters and staff from his first stint in power. He has distanced himself from it, but also appointed several members of the project to his team.
Noaa faced significant challenges during Trump’s first term in office. It became embroiled in the “Sharpiegate” row, about the lack of evidence to support Trump’s claim that a hurricane could hit Alabama.
Craig McLean was a senior leader at Noaa during this period. He was fired from his post as acting chief scientist, though not from his role as director of research, when he asked Trump appointees to the agency to acknowledge its policy on scientific integrity.
McLean spoke to Dialogue Earth: “I have grave concerns over the future of scientific freedom in the federal government under another Trump presidency, based on what occurred during the last Trump tenure, and that he denies climate science, climate change, human causation of global warming.
“It will be a chaotic and unsettling experience for science and for federal employees, requiring strong career federal leaders to stand up for their employees, principle and law.”
Shaping the future ocean
Much ocean-related policy is likely to depend on who serves in the next administration.
The president-elect has nominated Howard Lutnick to be secretary of commerce, the role that oversees Noaa. Lutnick is CEO of the financial services firm Cantor Fitzgerald and has said little publicly about the ocean agency. Trump has also nominated Elise Stefanik, a strong supporter of deep-sea mining, to be US ambassador to the UN. She has been described as a “staunch nodule supporter” by The Metals Company, which wants to collect manganese nodules from the ocean floor.
Much will depend on the actions of Trump and his appointees in the coming years. Their decisions will influence the ocean, including in ways that extend beyond US territorial waters.
The US has been hesitant to join international agreements under both Democrat and Republican leadership. For instance, the country has yet to ratify the decades-old UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, and is considered unlikely to ratify the nascent High Seas Treaty. Signing up to international agreements requires the approval of two-thirds of the Senate, which Trump’s party now controls.
The US has historically played a major role in negotiating them. However, its leadership in global efforts to address climate change and reduce plastic pollution has waned since the November election. Observers note that US negotiators have been seen as lacking legitimacy, given expectations that the incoming administration will take a combative stance against international environmental agreements. Trump withdrew the US from the Paris Agreement during his first term – reversed by Joe Biden in 2021 – and may well do it again in his second term.
McLean, who has first-hand experience of the impacts of a Trump presidency, expects the administration to step back from previous forms of international engagement.
“Trump’s role for US leadership in ocean policy is very different from presidents of both parties over many decades – that the US should be a sharing leader in global ocean science, and to generate policies that were wise for global sustainment of ocean health,” says McLean. “With this election, that tide may be swiftly outgoing.”
