China warns of El Niño impacts

The strongest El Niño event since records began will impact China’s climate this year and next, the China Meteorological Administration has warned this week.

Temperatures across the country are expected to be generally higher than average from late this year through the winter and into early 2027. But so is the frequency of cold waves. Precipitation nationwide should be above average, with a heightened risk of sharp temperature drops and heavy snowfall in the north, and periodic rain, snow and freezing conditions in the south, reports People’s Daily.

El Niño is a climate pattern in which the surface water of the east-central tropical Pacific Ocean warms significantly, affecting rainfall patterns and weather across the world, and raising temperatures globally. In China, an El Niño event is classified as “super-strong” if the average sea surface temperature in the monitored region reaches 2.5C above normal.

Following this classification, since 1900 there have been three previous super-strong El Niños: 1982-1983, 1997-1998, and 2014-2016. Data from the National Climate Center indicates that this year’s formed in September, with the sea surface temperature surpassing 3C above average for the first time. By October, it had developed into the strongest El Niño on record.

In recent months, Chinese meteorological authorities have issued frequent warnings about the El Niño. Jiefang Daily says four meteorological hazards need mitigating as a priority: freezing conditions and snow; episodic heavy rain; drought and forest fires; and stagnant atmospheric conditions.

Chao Qingchen, director of the National Climate Center, told the Paper that although the El Niño phenomenon is expected to weaken and conclude by the spring and summer of 2027, its effects will persist. Next summer could potentially see more intense and prolonged periods of heavy precipitation, as well as severe heatwaves, she said.

Read Dialogue Earth’s recent report on this looming El Niño.