A multitude of factors, nosediving public opinion in the UK among them, has defenestrated another leader. But Keir Starmer’s resignation on Monday holds lessons on some of the key environmental issues of our times for other leaders, and those who would influence them.
The prime minister of one of the world’s largest economies announced on 22 June that he would stand down just two years after Labour won a significant majority, and three years before he would legally have had to call an election. Though fuelled by many uniquely British pressures, in some key aspects his exit is a synecdoche for environmental issues globally.
Here are three key lessons from the curtailed rule of Keir Starmer: on aid, public opinion and relations with China.
1. The Global South cannot rely on Global North countries anymore (if they ever could)
In its 2024 election manifesto, the Labour party said it would “rebuild Britain’s reputation on international development with a new approach based on genuine respect and partnership with the global South to support our common interests”.
Starmer promised to strengthen such development work and his manifesto said, “Labour is committed to restoring development spending at the level of 0.7% of gross national income as soon as fiscal circumstances allow”. The Conservative party had previously cut spending, from 0.7% to 0.5% in 2021, or by GBP 3 billion (USD 4 billion) compared to 2020.
Manifestos are April when they woo, December when they wed, though, and it is clear that those last five words were doing a lot of work. “As soon as fiscal circumstances allow” is a promise always over the horizon, beyond Ukraine, Iran, the Strait of Hormuz, high energy bills.
Last year, Starmer’s government said that to increase defence spending it would lower development spending from 0.5% to 0.3% of GNI, equivalent to a cut of GBP 6 billion, with support to contract for ocean and forest programmes and the UN Green Climate Fund.
Adrian Lovett, UK executive director at Africa-focused organisation ONE, said the “deep and sudden cuts will create huge problems for the delivery of vital health services, humanitarian assistance and programmes to deal with the impact of conflict and climate change”.
The UK’s foreign secretary, Yvette Cooper, suggested in March this year that development aid and climate change would remain a priority, but critics were less optimistic. There was a “lack of clear, long-term commitments to support countries on the frontline of the climate crisis”, warned MP Sarah Champion, chair of the International Development Committee which scrutinises government decisions, and also a member of the Labour party.
The UK is not alone in prioritising domestic needs over international commitments. Many other nations have cut aid and the UK cuts are far smaller and less damaging than Donald Trump’s destruction of USAID. But for the Global South, those that put faith in commitments from wealthier nations have been disappointed again by a government in the UK that promised to do things differently.
2. Climate stories need to be told by all areas of government
Starmer presided over the UK as the country, and the wider world, underwent a profound shift in the politics of climate change. Under previous administrations there had been a broad, cross-party consensus that the issue was a major threat and strong action was needed to reach net zero emissions by 2050.
Then, last year, the opposition Conservative party abandoned a commitment to the 2050 date. The new right-wing party Reform, meanwhile, has fielded politicians who have openly questioned the reality of climate change. It has also pledged, if it comes to power, to undo Labour’s ban on new drilling for oil and gas in the North Sea. That decisions is one of Starmer’s policy wins, welcomed by climate scientists and energy experts.
But the government’s communication was either kept isolated in the climate box, left to the energy and climate minister, Ed Miliband, or was largely non-existent. The hope seemed to be that change by stealth would circumvent public anger. Instead, the field was left clear for well-funded climate reactionaries who linked climate policies to rising fuel prices caused by the Gulf conflict. They appear to have succeeded in bringing about a small but significant reduction in public concern, though the majority of people still worry about and support action against climate change.
Public perception of tension between “climate change sceptics and believers” is also rising, according to work by researchers at King’s College London published in February. Some 64% of those surveyed said there was a great deal or a fair amount of tension, mirroring the increased polarisation in the climate debate.
3. China is still a problem, and a solution
As with many other European nations, the UK’s relationship with China is as complicated as it is central to its energy transition and climate goals. Relations had become highly strained under the previous Conservative government, increasingly defined by national security concerns and a hawkish turn. Starmer tried to reset things, with climate and nature at the fore. Ed Miliband visiting Beijing in 2025 to restart diplomatic communications on the issue, and a memorandum of understanding on climate change cooperation between the two countries followed soon after.
There was also a long awaited visit by Starmer to China in January of this year, the first by a British prime minister since 2018. But there was a wide sense that the visit was rushed, and only approved by the Chinese side after the UK had given the green light to China’s large and controversial new embassy in London. That planned building had become mired in security concerns and strident rhetoric from Conservative politicians. Sources have told Dialogue Earth that this left little time to finalise the agenda with Chinese counterparts.
Moreover, any good will built via Starmer’s visit was soon undermined by a sudden decision. The government pulled the plug on a USD 2 billion wind power investment in the UK from Chinese company Mingyang Smart Energy, citing the need to protect “national security”. Analysts told Dialogue Earth the government provided no explanation as to what these concerns were, making it hard to differentiate genuine national security sensitivities from economic protectionism. Another analyst told Dialogue Earth that to some the move gave the impression of a rudderless China policy, seeking a reset via a prime ministerial visit one month, and blocking Chinese investment the next.
Starmer’s two years as prime minister demonstrated yet again the importance and challenge of a clearly articulated strategic approach to China, one that balances national security and economic concerns with the imperative of rapid decarbonisation.
The current frontrunner to succeed Starmer is Andy Burnham, former mayor of Greater Manchester and newly minted MP for Makerfield. Under Gordon Brown’s premiership (2007-10), he was also chief secretary to the Treasury, and secretary for health among other roles.
Burnham has yet to lay out how he would approach aid, climate change or China, but he has engaged with these subjects in the past. He visited China in 2018 to look at high-speed rail technology and set Manchester a target to reach net zero by 2038. His ideals however, have not yet been stress-tested by life inside Ten Downing Street.
