Can China’s clean power stations cope with a changed climate?

One day in early July, Mr Zhang of Wenzhou heard that a typhoon was forecast. He removed the 1,000 sq metres of solar panels from his roof in east China’s Zhejiang province.

Two days later, Typhoon Bavi hit the province, stripping solar panels from many roofs. Shattered panels and twisted frames littered the streets. Meanwhile, the south-west of China suffered downpours, soaking solar modules and transformers at a power plant in Guigang, Guangxi.

A few days before that, further inland in Hubei, tornadoes and thunderstorms had damaged power lines. Wind and solar power stations were also affected, namely their generating equipment, transmission lines and drainage.

This kind of weather-related damage can happen to power systems anywhere in the world: heatwaves and droughts reduce hydropower generation; lower, warmer rivers force nuclear power plants to shut down as they can’t keep cool; those which draw seawater for cooling find jellyfish blooms blocking their water intakes.

Clean power plants are intended to reduce global heating, but they also need to be resilient to the extreme weather events that climate change brings. Those events, though, are just the tip of the iceberg.

Experts say the longer-term effects of changing sunshine, wind and rainfall patterns are unpredictable. They warn that clean power equipment needs to be designed and located to address these issues too.

In the short-term: extreme weather and compound disasters

According to the latest Climate Change Blue Book, published in July, China is seeing more frequent and intense heatwaves and downpours, and more unpredictable typhoons.

Sustained high temperatures reduce the efficiency of solar power generation by about 0.5% every 1C above a baseline of 25C, global research has shown. Snow on solar panels also reduces efficiency, while wildfires and hailstones can damage them. Extreme precipitation can reduce solar power generation and while it does increase hydropower generation, it poses a risk to power grids and other infrastructure.

Strong winds and typhoons are a more visible threat. In September 2024, Typhoon Yagi hit Hainan in southern China, knocking over turbines at a wind farm, causing damage worth tens of of millions of dollars. A global review found that strong winds were involved in more than half of wind turbine collapses between 2000 and 2016.

Chinese standards require the frames supporting solar panels to be able to withstand “once in 50 years” wind speeds for the locality. The industry generally ensures its structures can withstand winds of 216 kmph – those generated by a Category 17 super-typhoon.

Nevertheless, strong winds remain a major threat to solar power. In April 2025, rooftop installations in northern and central China were damaged or blown off. More seriously than the economic damage is the human cost. In June of that year, the solar panels and other objects on the roof of a primary school in Dezhou, Shandong, were blown loose. One pupil was killed, two injured.

In financial terms, hailstones rather than wind are the biggest threat, according to climate insurance agency KWh Analytics. The main threats to solar power systems in China are strong winds and hailstorms, which could cause tens of millions of yuan in damage, research published in August found.

Worse than any single disaster, though, is two or more at once. When south-west China suffered heatwave and drought in the summer of 2022, peak energy consumption went up 25% while hydropower generation dropped by half. Many businesses had to shut down to ensure homes could keep receiving electricity.

Two or three abnormal weather events compounding – heat with no wind, cold with no sun, cold and snow and ice – impact electricity generation, transmission, demand and infrastructure in complex ways.

In April 2025, large swathes of China were struck by high winds, sandstorms, cold waves, rainstorms and blizzards. The snow and sandstorms ravaged the north, the south suffered from rain and intense thunderstorms. There was widespread damage to solar panels and 1,100 power lines, leaving 1.35 million households without power, found a research paper in June. The strong winds increased wind power generation by over 40%, while sand, rain and snow reduced solar power output by about 20%.

Workers repairing a power line in Liuzhou city, Guangxi (Image: Sipa US / Alamy)

Wei Ke, a researcher with the Chinese Academy of Sciences’ Institute of Atmospheric Physics, said: “More frequent extreme weather events are, due to climate change, an all-round threat to renewable energy facilities and the electricity system. The grid requires stability in generation, in demand, and in transmission. We need to think now about how it will cope with an unstable climate.”

In the long-term: sun, wind and rain all changing

Longer-term changes in the climate will have more widespread effects than extreme weather. Changes in wind speeds, solar irradiance and temperatures will affect wind and solar power output, and the best locations to use.

“Planning and cost estimates for hooking renewable energy up to the grid are mostly based on historical climate data,” Wang Yu, an associate researcher at Tsinghua University’s Institute of Energy, Environment and Economy, told Dialogue Earth. “Future changes could mean those estimates diverge from actual costs. Add in more frequent extreme weather events and there may be challenges to the safe and stable operation of the grid.”

China’s number of days of precipitation fell in 1961-2025, while the actual amount of precipitation has risen, data from the China Meteorological Administration shows. There are regional differences too. The south-west, where there is a lot of hydropower generation, is getting less rain, for example.

Long periods of little sunshine can of course impact solar power generation and climate change is making them longer lasting. In China, these solar droughts tend to happen in the Sichuan basin and the east of the Yunnan-Guizhou plateau. Research published in 2025, however, shows their number increased between 1981 and 2020, particularly in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze and China’s northern plains.

Similarly, wind droughts hamper wind power generation. Globally, wind speeds about 10 metres above the land fell steadily between 1970 and 2010 – a phenomenon known as global terrestrial stilling. The effect is clearest in the mid-latitudes of the northern hemisphere – which includes China and other parts of East Asia. Some research has found wind speeds picking up after 2010, but a 2026 paper by researchers at the National Climate Centre still found a reduction in China’s wind speeds of 0.06m/s per decade between 2005 and 2024.

Research from 2025 found changes in wind speed and solar irradiance could slightly reduce the potential for low-cost renewables in China. The lead author of that study, Zhu Xiangrong, a master’s student at Tsinghua University, explained: “Places where resources are currently rich, such as Xinjiang, Qinghai and Inner Mongolia, all in the north, will see notable falls, while provinces in the south will generally see increases. However, the north will continue to have the much larger endowment of renewable resources.”

Alongside the varied, and generally negative, impacts on the generation side, Wang Yu pointed out that climate change could worsen mismatches between generation and demand. During a heatwave, for example, power demand for air conditioning jumps while solar and wind generation may fall. Droughts and hot weather often occur together, meaning increased electricity demand just as there is lower hydro generation and less water for cooling coal-fired or nuclear power plants.

These changes will add to pressures on both supply and demand sides, putting the electricity system under increased stress.

Preparations: made and not yet made

As mentioned, the electricity system and clean power stations are located according to historical demand and climate data. But climate change is causing more frequent extreme weather events and making renewable energy output less predicatable. All this means new demands on the materials, technologies, siting and early warning systems used in clean power projects.

Sites chosen for offshore wind power projects may see increased extreme wind speeds. That means tougher turbines are needed, designed to shed blades in order to protect the more expensive tower and nacelle.

The biggest threats from high winds and hailstones to China’s solar power generation are in the east, but high winds will extend into central China by 2060, a recent study found. In the future, solar power project siting will need to consider weather-disaster risks, it added. Installations in areas at risk of high winds can angle the panels differently or use stronger support frames to reduce damage.

As the electricity system becomes more renewables-heavy, the risk of sustained extreme weather has to be built in at the planning stage, affecting questions of where to build, and how tough to make equipment, researchers have said.

Wei Ke suggests a three-fold defence of new technology, restructuring and coordination: equipment upgrades and smart controls will make the electricity system more secure; flexible grids and different forms of energy storage can even out fluctuations in supply and demand; while regional cooperation can shift power loads to different places or times.

China has of course been preparing for the impacts of climate change.

Its national adaptation strategy 2035, published in 2022, called for more climate resilience in the energy industry.

Design standards for solar power plants, published in 2024, now require protective measures to be taken where extreme weather is found; where sandstorms are common; and also in coastal shoals and areas of high air pollution.

There are also rules on the materials used in solar power modules and support structures, requiring climate conditions, temperature, wind, snow and corrosion to be considered.

Both onshore and offshore wind projects are covered by rules on climate conditions and extreme weather. In areas prone to typhoons, standards for offshore wind projects cover rare circumstances such as extreme winds, rough seas and storm surges.

Wang Yu pointed out that the 20-year lifespan of solar and wind power equipment is long enough to experience ongoing climate change. The decisions made today will determine risk exposure for decades to come. When planning major energy projects, changes in wind and sunshine availability due to climate change need to be considered, she added.