COP31: Q&A: Ana Toni on the fossil-fuel transition roadmap

As CEO of last year’s COP30 climate conference in Brazil, Ana Toni has spearheaded efforts to develop the Roadmap for Transitioning Away from Fossil Fuels.

Launched in Brasília on 3 November, six days before this year’s COP31 opened, the roadmap asks each country to “diagnose” how dependent it is on fossil fuels and its “readiness” to move away, using a self-assessment tool. It then points to policy options suited to that country’s circumstances, in three phases running to 2033. Countries are not obliged to act on the advice but the presidency hopes it will prompt them to draw up their own national roadmaps. Three major countries have so far done so – France, the Netherlands and Germany.

Reducing and stopping the burning of fossil fuels is necessary to avert the worst impacts of climate change, yet UN climate conferences have struggled to express that clearly in their final decision documents.

COP28 in Dubai called for “transitioning away from fossil fuels in energy systems”, but resistance from oil-producing countries slowed progress afterwards, and the United States withdrew from the Paris Agreement.

At COP30, a large group of countries pushed for a roadmap in the final document, but opposition from others blocked it. The presidency then said it would produce one outside the UN process instead. It said the roadmap would be informed by the first international conference on transitioning away from fossil fuels, held in Colombia in April with 57 countries.

Dialogue Earth spoke to Ana Toni about what the roadmaps can do for the fight against climate change.

The interview has been edited for length and clarity.

Dialogue Earth: How can the roadmap help very different countries?

Ana Toni speaking at COP30 in Belém (Image: Zô Guimarães / UN Climate Change, CC BY-NC-SA)

Ana Toni: It is aligned with the 1.5C objective, but it is not a one-size-fits-all prescription. It recognises that countries start from different positions, with different energy resources and capacities.

China, for example, has historically relied heavily on coal while rapidly expanding renewables, whereas around 90% of Brazil’s electricity already comes from renewable sources. We need to recognise these different starting points when planning the transition.

The first step is to understand how dependent we are on fossil fuels – in terms of demand, supply, and the broader economy. Without that understanding, we cannot identify the right policies and levers to move forward.

That’s why we’ve developed the readiness index and different country archetypes: to help countries assess their level of dependence and identify the most relevant policy options and next steps for their specific circumstances.

Who should take the roadmap forward – national governments, think-tanks, civil society?

Each country will need to decide the best way forward.

Many countries already have a lot of the policies that we talk about in the roadmap. But we wanted to go further because some countries are better at planning the transition, others are just adding new renewables to their energy sector.

It’s not only planning on transitioning from one technology or energy source to another. We also need to plan how we’re going to get out of fossil fuel. There are social and economic consequences of that transition that we need to be conscious of.

When we presented to some organisations in China, they said we need to look at the social consequences of the transition for elderly people. Such feedback can inform and improve our roadmap and the national ones that will be developed between now and COP33.

How could the roadmap complement China’s existing climate plans?

China has demonstrated that it not only sets plans but also delivers on them – and, at times, exceeds its own targets. Many countries, both developed and developing, can learn from this.

I think countries look at China from two perspectives. Some believe it could go further, or accelerate its efforts, to decarbonise its economy and energy sector, particularly when it comes to peaking emissions.

Others see China’s role in helping other countries decarbonise. Without China’s contributions, countries like Brazil and many African nations would have found the transition much more difficult. Its role in expanding access to renewable energy technologies has helped make them more affordable and accessible.

Ultimately, China’s climate impact needs to be understood in both dimensions: what it does domestically to decarbonise its own economy and how it supports the transition internationally. Both are critically important to global climate efforts, and both shape how the world engages with China.

How can this roadmap support the UN climate process?

Our hope is that our roadmap, alongside the national roadmaps in development, will help us assess the progress made, identify the remaining gaps, and determine what more needs to be done. By then, we’ll be able to be more granular on what needs to happen to transition away from fossil fuel.

If we don’t talk about the difficulties of transitioning away, and we only add the renewables, we are always going to have those two parallel systems.

The next key opportunity will be the second Global Stocktake (GST 2) starting this year and ending in 2028 at COP33.

At COP28, the first Global Stocktake highlighted key aims for the energy sector: tripling renewable-energy capacity, doubling the annual rate of energy-efficiency improvements, and transitioning away from fossil fuels.

With GST 2, we need to ask how much progress have made on these three goals? We know, for example, that we are still far off the energy-efficiency goal.

As the roadmap sits outside the UN climate framework, which institution can or should lead on it?

This roadmap was decided by the COP30 presidency and does not have a mandate from the UNFCCC. Unfortunately, we don’t yet have a UN-based international institution with a comprehensive mandate covering energy.

The IEA (International Energy Agency) has a membership of around 35 countries, while IRENA (the International Renewable Energy Agency) has a much broader membership but focuses on renewables. We still lack a dedicated international forum to address energy as a whole, particularly the transition away from fossil fuels.

Perhaps such a body will emerge in the future. For now, our priority must be to understand our dependence on fossil fuels – not just in terms of energy supply, but also their broader economic implications.

I don’t think our politicians, governments, civil society or media fully understand how deeply this dependence is embedded in our tax systems and local and regional economies. Without that awareness, we won’t be able to identify the right policy levers to move forward.

What positives have you seen in individual countries?

Under the COP30 action agenda, there are many items there that plurilateral groups or countries or multi-stakeholder groups are already doing.

For example, countries and companies are working on reducing methane emissions from the oil and gas sectors. China is a very active player on the methane pledge, as we know.

We need to break into the smaller topics that are helping that to happen rather than thinking that it’s magic. For example, Ethiopia has passed legislation to stop importing combustion cars and will only have electric cars coming in from this year. And we know that Rwanda is following suit.

Let us look at what has happened in those countries. Should other countries enact policies such as those? Is this helping on the transition away?

What happens next?

Now we are looking at the many things that need to happen to transition away. The proposed “35 by 35” target on electrification is obviously an important part of that.

We also need to address other key building blocks, including fossil-fuel subsidies, the economic dependence of some countries on fossil-fuel exports, and methane emissions.

COP31 could help deepen the discussion on these issues. While our roadmap could provide a broader framework for addressing the different building blocks over time, with future COPs taking forward specific elements.

Civil society can help sustain this work, but it would also be valuable for an organisation such as the IEA, IRENA or UN Environment Programme to maintain the overarching framework. As each COP advances individual priorities, we need someone to take a holistic view of progress across all the policies needed to deliver a successful transition away from fossil fuels.